Post by: maxim on December 13, 2010, 07:10:35 PM
"Through Nov. 21, total track sales (both albums and individual tracks) are up about 5 percent (assuming 12 tracks equal an album). That gain of 95 million tracks pales in comparison to the 277 million-unit gain achieved in all of 2009. And the revenue those 95 million tracks generated is tiny compared with the financial impact of 47 million fewer CDs sold through Nov. 21....
.......Moreover, the digital album is showing signs of old age. For the first time, digital album sales declined for three consecutive quarters — from the first quarter through third-quarter 2010."
food for thought...
i'm, personally, interested in the current experiences with digital listening among the users of this forum
what are you making?
what are you listening to?
single tracks, ep's, albums?
15 minutes, 30 minutes, 40 minutes, 70 minutes?
no patterns at all?
i listen to a lot of internet radio (but, mainly, kcrw's 'morning becomes eclectic')
i download single tracks and albums off itunes (90% albums)
it seems my audients prefer the opposite ratio (90% single tracks)
i'm thinking of ditching making albums altogether and just record & release
it makes economic sense to cut a few tracks at the same time, while you've got the band and the engineers ready to go, but they don't have to be released at the same time
it's a bit retro, but it may be the new way...
i still prefer "sgt pepper's" to "beatles greatest hits 1967-1970" though...
Post by: Todd Loomis on December 13, 2010, 08:19:59 PM
Post by: Nick Sevilla on December 14, 2010, 01:09:11 AM
I would take this entire "report" with a heavy dose of salt grains.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nielsen_SoundScan
"Soundscan is the official method of tracking sales of music and music video products throughout the United States and Canada"
It's the "official method", ok, but of WHOM? According to this description... it only tracks CD sales in two countries, out of 149+ in the world. This cannot then be used to gauge any sales on any global distributor, like... most record labels...and iTunes...and anything on the Internet.
"The Recording Industry Association of America also tracks sales (or more specifically, shipments less potential returns) on a long-term basis through the RIAA certification system; it has never used either Nielsen SoundScan or the store-calling method."
So, the RIAA, the Recording Industry Associaiton of America, does not use Nielsen SoundScan. So their numbers are not included in the "reporters" numbers. An inaccuracy has developed. An inaccuracy with one of the largest associations making records in America, which is one of the two countries Nielsen services. Oops... I think the "reporter" could have done what I did and Googled... or even used other search methods to find out more accurate information on his / her subject matter.
Some interesting reading occurs further down the "Wiki" :
"Sales data from cash registers is collected from 14,000 retail, mass merchant, and non-traditional (on-line stores, venues, digital music services, etc.) outlets in the United States, Canada and the U.K.
The requirements for reporting sales to Nielsen SoundScan are that the store has Internet access and a point of sale (POS) inventory system. Submission of sales data to Nielsen SoundScan must be in the form of a text file consisting of all the UPCs sold and the quantities per UPC on a weekly basis. Sales collected from Monday-Sunday or Sunday-Saturday are reported to SoundScan every Monday and made available to SoundScan subscribers every Wednesday.[citation needed]"
So, for any store that does not have nor use Internet Access, and a POS sale system. This would be some mom and pop stores.
And it only says on there that 14,000 stores are affiliated ot the Nielsen system. I don't know about you, but I wonder about Starbucks'... do they get reported, and if so, to whom?
And one more "little" thing :
http://popdose.com/popdose-cheap-trick-takes-on-nielsen-soun d-scan/
"Now, there are performance and publishing royalties associated with those compilations, so some folks in the band are making money. The other people making money are all the businesses that sell sales data to Nielsen Soundscan, the dominant source of music sales information. (A sister business, Bookscan, handles data on book sales.) Major retail chains sell their sales information to Soundscan, which in turn resells reports to the record companies and others who might want that information.
Read more: Numberscruncher: Cheap Trick Takes On Nielsen SoundScan | Popdose http://popdose.com/popdose-cheap-trick-takes-on-nielsen-soun d-scan/#ixzz183zV3VEh
Under Creative Commons License: Attribution"
In conclusion,I think, before we all start looking for the next "paradigm" we ought to be looking at a more real landscape. Once we have truer numbers, then we can start to think about what format is more likely selling. And finding out that the companies who sell product are SELLING THE SALES DATA to Nielsen SoundScan... well that to me sounds of a very likely corruptible situation.
Imagine a store that does not have any information, cooks some up, to sell it to Nielsen, so they can make their quarterly profits look better... yummy. Add to that no information from the RIAA, and toss in 149+ countries of which Nielsen knows NOTHING AT ALL, and we get a pretty accurate picture... that it is in fact an unkowable thing, how many sales actually occur.
Logical
Post by: Silvertone on December 14, 2010, 07:06:43 AM
It use to be "feast or famine" was the mantra for the self employed, now it's "crumbs and famine".
New paradigm: "Head between your legs, breath deep"
In the US, the big boys who run the show are taking us all down... while they get richer and richer... IMHO... let the revolution begin. I know I'm ready for it, are you?
I just sayin'...
Post by: MagnetoSound on December 14, 2010, 07:11:02 AM
| Silvertone wrote on Tue, 14 December 2010 12:06 |
... let the revolution begin. I know I'm ready for it, are you? |
Hell, yeah! But what does that mean in real terms?
Post by: Silvertone on December 14, 2010, 07:49:36 AM
| MagnetoSound wrote on Tue, 14 December 2010 06:11 | ||
Hell, yeah! But what does that mean in real terms? |
In real terms... pay down your debt and stock up on your firearms.
I do have a solution that would help this country... How about universal health care for all instead of tax cuts for the rich? I'm tired of paying 1000.00 a month for my health care and 30.00 co-pays while I pay for the teacher, the policeman, the fireman, the federal, state, country, city workers and grandma and grandpa's (the ones who vote down "socialized medicine" of course are the ones who get "socialized medicine") to get free health care.
The music industry is just a small cog in the bigger picture of what is happening but everybody who is "fat" in this country are just fine with the status quo. And since "the fat" are the ones who run this country we are all pretty much screwed.
Until everybody has to pay for health insurance nothing will change... oh and by the way, here's how they work, they increased our health care by 18% last year and 17% this year... how nice as I make the same money I did as 30 f*cking years ago!
Post by: Fig on December 14, 2010, 11:08:17 AM
| maxim wrote on Mon, 13 December 2010 18:10 |
what are you making? |
EP-Album length projects with bands. Most are independently released on CD, occasionally a vinyl release. Most of them play live and they sell discs at their shows. I'm sure these same folks have websites and FaceSpaces but my studio has nothing to do with any of that.
| Quote: |
what are you listening to? |
CDs and vinyl. I have portable players and a laptop, but prefer to not experience music in that way.
| Quote: |
single tracks, ep's, albums? |
I've never downloaded a song from the internet. I shop at record stores. That said, I've only purchased two albums in two years.
| Quote: |
i'm thinking of ditching making albums altogether and just record & release |
As an artist or a studio?
| Quote: |
i still prefer "sgt pepper's" to "beatles greatest hits 1967-1970" though... |
I should HOPE SO!!
Post by: mazoaudio on December 14, 2010, 12:24:15 PM
| Silvertone wrote on Tue, 14 December 2010 06:49 | ||||
I do have a solution that would help this country... How about universal health care for all instead of tax cuts for the rich? The music industry is just a small cog in the bigger picture of what is happening but everybody who is "fat" in this country are just fine with the status quo. And since "the fat" are the ones who run this country we are all pretty much screwed. Until everybody has to pay for health insurance nothing will change... oh and by the way, here's how they work, they increased our health care by 18% last year and 17% this year... how nice as I make the same money I did as 30 f*cking years ago! |
Right On Larry!
You are (sadly) correct sir (and screwed)
Post by: Les Ismore on December 14, 2010, 02:36:18 PM
every man for himself!
I don't even attempt to support myself with music anymore. It just isn't realistic. I continue to record an album here and there for people and do more of my own music (that I have always put on the back burner for 25 years because I was too busy doing other peoples albums.)
But seriously I just don't think it's a realistic business model anymore.
Post by: maxim on December 14, 2010, 03:58:10 PM
"As an artist or a studio?"
as an artist/producer
i'm also going ALL digital (not even promotional discs)
itunes/amazon only (perhaps, not even amazon, most sales seem to come from itunes)
Post by: littlehat on December 14, 2010, 04:24:00 PM
B- The new paradigm is this: Give your music away to consumers and live off of live performance, licensing, and merch money.
Post by: mgod on December 14, 2010, 07:42:14 PM
| Silvertone wrote on Tue, 14 December 2010 04:49 |
In real terms... pay down your debt and stock up on your firearms. |
Its pretty disturbing how many people I hear talking this way lately, people you'd never expect to be looking out for an upcoming revolution.
I think the downtrodden were so used to it before the last Depression that they took it in stride - more of the same - but we had the benefit of the post-FDR nation. Now we are suffering the benefits of the post-Reagan nation.
Its historically interesting to me that a lot of the American kids who created the world of contemporary music were largely educated under a 91% top tax rate.
Post by: Todd Loomis on December 14, 2010, 09:19:01 PM
| mgod wrote on Tue, 14 December 2010 17:42 |
Its historically interesting to me that a lot of the American kids who created the world of contemporary music were largely educated under a 91% top tax rate. |
A long time ago, I believed in EQUAL tax among all brackets... taxes didn't seem like a reasonable way to redistribute wealth. The more I think about it lately though, maybe it is the only way. Here's a top tax rate history:
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Doc id=213
The margin between the richest and poorest in this country continues to grow. Huge profits are being made, and it seems that very very little of it ever trickles down. I think a lot of the wealthy think that nobody else is doing anything to work for a living. I read an interview with Luke Scott (baseball player) recently (HERE). He talks about everyone wanting everything for free, but nobody wants to work for anything. He believes that is the drive behind Obama's ideas... like what? Health care? Yeah, that 7 year old kid with cancer? His whole family is being driven into bankruptcy because of a system that won't care for him. Ask society to chip in and provide a health care system like most of the rest of the world... Na... he just wants everything for free. He ought to work for it.
What a joke. Some people are just plain stupid - or completely out of touch with what reality is like for 98% of the rest of the world. That "holier than though" mentality that trickles down from the upper class on occasion is nauseating. I believe strongly in work and work ethic. Pretty much everyone I know is working there ***es off - 40-60 hour weeks - and they just barely get by and live month to month - no savings - no retirement plans or options - no equity. I do know a few that do better, and a few that do worse - but I would say in the big picture, most people are pretty hard working decent people and it sickens me to see that work completely ignored or insulted - especially by someone playing baseball for a living! So sad...
Lastly, with the recent tax cuts being allowed to continue for the rich... and the GOP plans to fight against health care (and the recent ruling in court that it is unconstitutional), it's quite obvious that trickle down is a complete lie/joke.
Post by: Arf! Mastering on December 14, 2010, 09:49:06 PM
Post by: Todd Loomis on December 14, 2010, 10:10:37 PM
Post by: kats on December 14, 2010, 10:23:53 PM
| Todd Loomis wrote on Tue, 14 December 2010 20:19 |
. Ask society to chip in and provide a health care system like most of the rest of the world... Na... he just wants everything for free. He ought to work for it. |
Yet corporate welfare trumps them all.
Anyhow, I'm sorry to say this but you/we get what you deserve. We live in democracies and we chose our leaders. Unfortunately nobody wants to do the right thing, it's too hard and there's no spine. The sad thing is that the future of generations to come has been stolen. This is some serious bad karma, and the legacy is going to be one of the worst imaginable.
Post by: mgod on December 14, 2010, 10:42:31 PM
Post by: rjd2 on December 14, 2010, 10:47:52 PM
as for the political stuff...
income disparity right now looks like it did in 1929. however, what would have happened if the new deal didnt kick in? (and WW2 to follow up?). we might find out this time. as i understand it, the post-war era was marked by the country coming off of a TRUE sense of collective purpose around WW2. people now dont feel a sense of collective purpose about iraq war, afghani war, or any other fucking war we're gonna start in the next 5 years. very different climate.
kats-all democracies arent the same. from my view, OUR representative democracy has been fractured(read-doesnt work) since at least i've been a voter. you mean we should have voted in the one of two parties that didnt push thru a bailout for the finance sector? or the party that actually pushed for a public option for health care?(76% of ppl wanted this) or the one that isnt trying to funnel 500B into a defense budget a year? that party doesnt exist as a viable option.
i for one am actually excited to see how americans react to their situation over the next few years.
Post by: el duderino on December 15, 2010, 12:37:12 AM
| littlehat wrote on Tue, 14 December 2010 16:24 |
B- The new paradigm is this: Give your music away to consumers and live off of live performance, licensing, and merch money. |
finally someone here says it. It's basically no different than the way it was before (assuming the artist knew enough about licensing and merch being lucrative, and got paid for live performances), except there is no money from record sales. sure, there could be, but odds are against it. and yes, they always have been against it, but not like now.
I think the best example of this is to look at what the top 40 was actually selling over periods of time. If you look, it is absurd what can be in the top 10 or 20 now compared to 15 years ago. comparing the sales is just ridiculous.
Post by: Tidewater on December 15, 2010, 07:31:15 AM
I can't recall the sound, or name, or hook of a single Metallica song in.. 20 years? That one sucked! oh no I can't stop it now..
thanks max
Post by: Silvertone on December 15, 2010, 08:13:24 AM
| mgod wrote on Tue, 14 December 2010 18:42 | ||
Its pretty disturbing how many people I hear talking this way lately, people you'd never expect to be looking out for an upcoming revolution. I think the downtrodden were so used to it before the last Depression that they took it in stride - more of the same - but we had the benefit of the post-FDR nation. Now we are suffering the benefits of the post-Reagan nation. Its historically interesting to me that a lot of the American kids who created the world of contemporary music were largely educated under a 91% top tax rate. |
I agree Larry. I'm not a violent man by nature but I do come from an Italian heritage... so a "don't f*ck with mine and nobody gets hurt" mentality. I do believe "there's a war out there right now" of the people vs. the government, it just hasn't come to a head yet. When it does we're really going to see how "commy" the US has become.
People are just blinded by their everyday lives... when they are not able to make a living in the future, they'll have nothing to distract them and their eyes will open... then the shit will hit the fan.
Personally, I can't believe what I see everyday now. This was once a great proud country... between the media and our government we pretty much threw ourselves into the toilet... well or a certain regime that ran the country post 9/11 did. Think how much better the US would have been if we spent all that "war money" in our own country. Our leaders failed us prior to 9/11 and then used it as an excuse to ram-rod the American public into their own personal agenda... who btw, bought it hook line and sinker. "We give up our freedom all in the name of a squeeky clean America".
We are so screwed!
Post by: MagnetoSound on December 15, 2010, 08:48:31 AM
We did it here too, Larry. Perhaps not as fully, but it's still going that way.
Global
Corporatism
Sucks.
Post by: kats on December 15, 2010, 08:56:02 AM
| rjd2 wrote on Tue, 14 December 2010 21:47 |
. kats-all democracies arent the same. from my view, OUR representative democracy has been fractured(read-doesnt work) since at least i've been a voter. you mean we should have voted in the one of two parties that didnt push thru a bailout for the finance sector? or the party that actually pushed for a public option for health care?(76% of ppl wanted this) or the one that isnt trying to funnel 500B into a defense budget a year? that party doesnt exist as a viable option. i for one am actually excited to see how americans react to their situation over the next few years. |
No. Democracy doesn't work by voting once every four years and going to sleep. A citizen has to be constantly politically active and up to speed on the issues. If you hold your representatives accountable it DOES work. But it is easier to say it is broken.
Post by: trunkline on December 15, 2010, 09:12:57 AM
| Silvertone wrote on Wed, 15 December 2010 13:13 |
I do believe "there's a war out there right now" of the people vs. the government, it just hasn't come to a head yet. |
There might be two or three wars going on unfortunately--I think we the people are currently divided and conquered. If the teabaggers & the left-wing rabble ever decide (realize?) they have more in common with each other than with their respective elected "representatives," then there will be trouble.
Tom
Post by: rjd2 on December 15, 2010, 09:39:47 AM
re:whoever referenced the bush 2 admin/military budget-this didnt change a whole hell of a lot in his tenure. its actually peaked in 2010(on a dems' watch), but rep or dem, 1962-2010 doesnt show that huge of a relative spike anywhere:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_S tates
chart on right midway down shows actual defense spending in inflation adjusted dollars. certainly doesnt look party-related.
| kats wrote on Wed, 15 December 2010 13:56 |
No. Democracy doesn't work by voting once every four years and going to sleep. A citizen has to be constantly politically active and up to speed on the issues. If you hold your representatives accountable it DOES work. But it is easier to say it is broken. |
kats-i dont mean this facetiously, i want a "real answer" so to speak:
-for a citizen who votes in the primary election, mid-term election, all local elections, and calls their state rep to leave a message about their dissatisfaction with a bill/non-bill issue, what does "hold your representatives accountable" look like, in real terms?
does it look like someone taking an elected official hostage? "voting harder"? donating MORE to a campaign? throwing a brick through a state reps window? calling more often? in real world terms-actions-i'd like to know what you think people arent going to do tomorrow when they wake up that they should be doing.
Post by: kats on December 15, 2010, 10:44:38 AM
Throw the bums out. Then maybe read a book or two so you don't get suckered into the same BS soundbites the second time around. No point replacing bums with more bums.
The core issue is really the education system. Without a good one, democracy cannot work. Especially now that the electoral college ceases to function as originally intended.
Post by: DarinK on December 15, 2010, 01:35:21 PM
This is actually how the New Deal came about. There was a real fear that the communists & socialists could gain true political power, so the Democrats moved to the left to stop this from happening.
Post by: Les Ismore on December 15, 2010, 02:16:36 PM
Anyway we are now going through a "Recall" campaign where a certain percentage of registered voters sign a form and if there are enough signatures, the elected representative is recalled for not fulfilling his duties properly.
I would suggest that this is something that should be implemented everywhere. If they don't do what they said they were going to do or are dishonest, you recall them.
Post by: Jay Kadis on December 15, 2010, 02:26:43 PM
Post by: littlehat on December 15, 2010, 06:23:39 PM
| DarinK wrote on Wed, 15 December 2010 13:35 |
But it doesn't work if anyone who voted for Nader is called a traitor & blamed for Bush's election. It's got to be a long-term effort, with the acceptance that some "spoiling" could happen in the meantime. In other words, no "lesser of two evils" compromising can occur. |
I don't think third party voters are traitors. I do think they are fools though. I also blame them for W's mistakes along with the 2000 supreme court.
I remember all the Naderites saying the other two candidates were the same.
Do you really think that now?
Do you really think we'd be in two wars and a recession right now if Gore had been elected?
"...some "spoiling""?
How about "some catastrophic global governmental failures"?
I agree that more political parties, a more fair electoral system transparency of elected official business, etc would be great.
BUT...
"Some spoiling" has already proven more than our planet can handle.
Post by: Spindrift on December 15, 2010, 06:58:09 PM
| kats wrote on Wed, 15 December 2010 07:44 |
The US congress has a 95% incumbency rate! What else need be said? But just for laughs I offer the following: Throw the bums out. Then maybe read a book or two so you don't get suckered into the same BS soundbites the second time around. No point replacing bums with more bums. The core issue is really the education system. Without a good one, democracy cannot work. Especially now that the electoral college ceases to function as originally intended. |
Right on Tony. A great book to start with is Brave New World Revisited written by Huxley back in 1958. So relevant to today!
Keith
Post by: DarinK on December 15, 2010, 07:43:31 PM
| littlehat wrote on Wed, 15 December 2010 15:23 | ||
I don't think third party voters are traitors. I do think they are fools though. I also blame them for W's mistakes along with the 2000 supreme court. I remember all the Naderites saying the other two candidates were the same. Do you really think that now? Do you really think we'd be in two wars and a recession right now if Gore had been elected? "...some "spoiling""? How about "some catastrophic global governmental failures"? I agree that more political parties, a more fair electoral system transparency of elected official business, etc would be great. BUT... "Some spoiling" has already proven more than our planet can handle. |
I do believe we'd still be in the wars. Look at what Obama has done or not done. Look at 20th century history - the Democrats have always been just as hawklike as the Republicans, despite conventional wisdom to the contrary. And a Democrat (Clinton) was responsible for the repeal of Glass-Steagal, which was the setup for the global economic crisis.
The environment would possibly be better off if Gore had won, though.
I don't blame Nader voters in Florida for Bush winning - that was entirely due to f'ed up election procedures & the Supreme Court handing the win to Bush, with Gore meekly standing by and saying he didn't want to interfere because interference would have been heading in the direction of revolution. If you want to blame Nader voters, I'd still blame the Democrats for not ever doing anything for the left wing but expecting their support in every election, unlike the Repubs who give their right wing a voice.
Post by: Spindrift on December 15, 2010, 08:00:54 PM
| kats wrote on Wed, 15 December 2010 07:44 |
The US congress has a 95% incumbency rate! What else need be said? But just for laughs I offer the following: Throw the bums out. Then maybe read a book or two so you don't get suckered into the same BS soundbites the second time around. No point replacing bums with more bums. The core issue is really the education system. Without a good one, democracy cannot work. Especially now that the electoral college ceases to function as originally intended. |
For democracy to function, you have to have an educated citizenry. We are educated today in a very specialized sense.....you go to University (vocational schools I call them) to become an accountant, engineer, doctor, lawyer. But few are educated in the "liberal arts" which enriches the person and helps them think through a broad set of problems and issues facing society. Specialization has helped us progress leaps and bounds in the areas of scientific/medical/technological advances but it has not boded well for our democracy in general. The "specialist" mis-diagnoses problems for they often see only the trees instead of the forest. All the world's a nail when you only have a hammer.
The founding fathers setup our country as a representative democracy. They, in essence, were afraid to give the average voter too much power because they feared the tyranny of the majority....an ignorant majority....and that is what we have now. A LOT of ignorant people are making decisions based on how some candidate makes them FEEL vs. listening to reason and evaluating the candidate's worldview and approach to making important decisions. We have endless polls to tell the politicians how to vote so that they best represent their constituents. Not the intended purpose! The intent is to elect someone you trust to make proper decisions regarding the interests of its constituents while taking into account the complexities of the political/societal environs. Does that sound like anyone in the 2 party system that you'd trust? Not me! If they can rise up to the level of running for Senator or Congressman, I'm already skeptical.
Take, for example, the ballot measures that we in our state vote on each election. I read through that legalese and am stupified 1/2 of the time. I need a law degree and 4 weeks to hang out in my state's congress chambers to get a read on what the intentions of the proponents/opponents are before I make up my mind. I often end up just voting NO because I can't possibly know enough about the issue to make an informed decision. I suspect that's how a lot of the citizenry feels when reading those things. The byproduct is a ton of $$$ spent on dumbed-down ad nauseum political ads that appeal to one's passions vs. one's reason.
Bottom line, we are in a very precarious state and the future does not look good.
</rant>
Keith
Post by: littlehat on December 15, 2010, 08:23:26 PM
| DarinK wrote on Wed, 15 December 2010 19:43 |
I do believe we'd still be in the wars. Look at what Obama has done or not done. Look at 20th century history - the Democrats have always been just as hawklike as the Republicans, despite conventional wisdom to the contrary. And a Democrat (Clinton) was responsible for the repeal of Glass-Steagal, which was the setup for the global economic crisis. The environment would possibly be better off if Gore had won, though. I don't blame Nader voters in Florida for Bush winning - that was entirely due to f'ed up election procedures & the Supreme Court handing the win to Bush, with Gore meekly standing by and saying he didn't want to interfere because interference would have been heading in the direction of revolution. If you want to blame Nader voters, I'd still blame the Democrats for not ever doing anything for the left wing but expecting their support in every election, unlike the Repubs who give their right wing a voice. |
If you think we'd be in Iraq had Gore been elected, I'm correct to call this foolishness.
I don't disagree that a viable third party (at least) would help our country and world, but denying what the Nader 2000 debacle cost us all is where you drive over the cliff. It cost us.
Trillions of dollars, generations of Legal Freedoms and Hundreds of Thousands of lives.
It's not conventional wisdom, it's history.
The best way to advance your position is NOT over stating, vilification or hyperbole... it's level headed discourse about how a third party would be GOOD.
Agreed, Glass-Steagall was a huge error and should be reinstated and redoubled.
I'll also say that I think the drumbeat of further deregulation is just a way to really open the floodgates and either let corporate interests run and eventually ruin what's left of our world.
BUT, if you think the right wing has a voice, why in republican majority periods have none of the core items on their social agenda been accomplished? Because their elected officials don't represent them faithfully? It's because they find themselves similarly mired in compromises with their opposition.
IMHO the first and best thing we could do for ourselves as citizens is to support a constitutional amendment to define a corporation as something less protected and more culpable than a human person.
Post by: kats on December 15, 2010, 08:45:27 PM
When the insult d'jour earlier this year was to be called a "re-distributor", I knew we were in big trouble.
Post by: rjd2 on December 15, 2010, 08:55:04 PM
| littlehat wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 01:23 |
Trillions of dollars, generations of Legal Freedoms and Hundreds of Thousands of lives. It's not conventional wisdom, it's history. The best way to advance your position is NOT over stating, vilification or hyperbole... it's level headed discourse about how a third party would be GOOD. |
while i feel your regret about W, i'm not fully sold on the numbers here, at least budget-wise("trillions of dollars"). do you know who the last president was to spend less than one trillion dollars on defense during his tenure? the spending was going to happen either way.
iraq=clusterfuck, for sure. more casualties than afghani war. but while gore might not have invaded iraq, he would most likely have invaded somewhere. we look at the war in afghanistan as somehow different than iraq, but the bill is going to shake out to be at least as expensive, if not more so, than iraq. in the history of afghanistan, no country has apparently EVER successfully invaded-how are we going to magically be any different?
if voting for a 3rd party is voting for a change to the actual system, and voting democrat is just a hedge against the lesser of two disasters, i dont think its fair to discount the idea of a 3rd party vote.
Post by: mgod on December 15, 2010, 09:10:28 PM
| littlehat wrote on Wed, 15 December 2010 17:23 |
I don't disagree that a viable third party (at least) would help our country and world, but denying what the Nader 2000 debacle cost us all is where you drive over the cliff. It cost us. |
The actual Florida exit polls (as opposed to the National ones the Dem party officials always cited) show that Nader pulled exactly from Bush what he pulled from Gore: 1%. But they also show that 13% of Democrats in Florida voted for Bush. Not happy numbers to Dem officials. Better to blame the 3rd party candidate. In other words, Nader had NO effect in Florida. The election was Gore's to lose, and he did it by losing so many of his own party.
Post by: Bill Mueller on December 15, 2010, 09:57:17 PM
| Silvertone wrote on Wed, 15 December 2010 08:13 | ||||
I agree Larry. I'm not a violent man by nature but I do come from an Italian heritage... so a "don't f*ck with mine and nobody gets hurt" mentality. I do believe "there's a war out there right now" of the people vs. the government, it just hasn't come to a head yet. When it does we're really going to see how "commy" the US has become. People are just blinded by their everyday lives... when they are not able to make a living in the future, they'll have nothing to distract them and their eyes will open... then the shit will hit the fan. Personally, I can't believe what I see everyday now. This was once a great proud country... between the media and our government we pretty much threw ourselves into the toilet... well or a certain regime that ran the country post 9/11 did. Think how much better the US would have been if we spent all that "war money" in our own country. Our leaders failed us prior to 9/11 and then used it as an excuse to ram-rod the American public into their own personal agenda... who btw, bought it hook line and sinker. "We give up our freedom all in the name of a squeeky clean America". We are so screwed! |
This is exactly what Osama said he was going to do nine years ago. And we all said, "Oh come on now, how can he damage our supreme economic power?" It appears he knew something most of us didn't. Our might was inflated right along with our property values.
Bill
Post by: Extreme Mixing on December 15, 2010, 10:39:02 PM
Not sure what this has to do with recording, but the world has changed. No mistaking that.
Steve
Post by: Jay Kadis on December 15, 2010, 11:09:25 PM
At the risk of returning to the original topic, I think the new paradigm is artists like Jack Conte. Jack was a student in my class several years ago. When he left school he started writing music and recording, making YouTube videos and promoting his music.
He's half (he's really more than half) of the band Pomplamoose that is featured in several Hyundai Christmas ads recently. [Wikipedia says they sold over 100,000 songs (downloads) in 2009.]
Post by: Tidewater on December 16, 2010, 12:22:58 AM
Things did not have to be like this. We didn't suffer enough at the onset. We will. We are.
Post by: RMoore on December 16, 2010, 02:43:35 AM
After a 20yr stint doing music full time - its back to non-music related side jobs to earn $.
I listen to & find new music on youtube.
I order hard copy music (vinyl mainly) via niche-oriented web shops.
I didn't release any new music as an artiste in 2 yrs, yet more people than ever before have heard of the stuff around the World.
I played a 'dj' gig this weekend on a remote island 'off the grid', only DIY generated electricity etc, can only get there by a harrowing (in Winter) sea crossing in a small boat
& a young lady came up with a vinyl LP I'd had in my hands about 12 years before in Holland, whilst gluing the artwork on the sleeve.
I played in a notorious poor ghetto area of Mexico City last year & someone came up with a cd to sign.
Things are just getting stranger.
Music is not dying either.
I think its correct, what others mentioned above, that younger people will find their way in this 'new paradigm' as for them it is all normal & they are not traumatized by any sense of changes, frustration or loss.
Post by: mgod on December 16, 2010, 10:26:28 AM
| RMoore wrote on Wed, 15 December 2010 23:43 |
I think its correct, what others mentioned above, that younger people will find their way in this 'new paradigm' as for them it is all normal & they are not traumatized by any sense of changes, frustration or loss. |
I think that's a wonderful way to see it and hope its true. My daughter seems fine with it all, other than seeing her father losing the career that's paid for her life so far.
Post by: kats on December 16, 2010, 01:10:36 PM
| RMoore wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 01:43 |
I think its correct, what others mentioned above, that younger people will find their way in this 'new paradigm' as for them it is all normal & they are not traumatized by any sense of changes, frustration or loss. |
And by the same token the listener will have lower expectations and will be less affected by the art of their generation. Well that wraps that up, we can close the thread now!
Post by: Jay Kadis on December 16, 2010, 03:05:17 PM
| kats wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 10:10 | ||
And by the same token the listener will have lower expectations and will be less affected by the art of their generation. Well that wraps that up, we can close the thread now! |
What makes you think this generational divide is any different from the one the Beatles caused?
Post by: kats on December 16, 2010, 04:31:25 PM
My point is that if you accept that artists will find a way to make music under this new model (which one would assume would be under less than ideal conditions and probably part time), you are accepting by default that the product will be inferior. And in your own words, they wouldn't know any better.
I say that if you accept that the artists wouldn't know any better, then you have to accept that the listener will not know any better. Therefore, what we have is a race to the bottom.
Post by: joeyhavoc on December 16, 2010, 04:42:42 PM
| Jay Kadis wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 14:05 |
What makes you think this generational divide is any different from the one the Beatles caused? |
Very true.
My grandfather was a professional musician from around 1919 into the 1980's. He sang opera, played violin in orchestras and saxophone in swing bands.
In the late 50's and early 60's he thought that the music world was going down in flames due to the over abundance of rock and roll "crap" that he would occasionally hear on the radio. Musical tastes were being "dumbed down" as kids "settled" for "mediocre music" with chord progressions consisting of only three chords with lyrics about trite teenage love themes played by folks who couldn't properly play their instruments.
In his view, the AM airwaves provided crappy frequency response for crap songs made by mediocre musicians who were only on the air because recording time had become too cheap and radio stations too prolific allowing the dissemination of poor product driven by youth who were uneducated as to what constituted "good music".
I'm not saying that there are no problems in the industry. But to Jay's point, some of the arguments that I hear today are similar to the ones my grandfather made 35 years ago.
joe
Post by: rjd2 on December 16, 2010, 04:46:05 PM
| kats wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 21:31 |
My point is that if you accept that artists will find a way to make music under this new model (which one would assume would be under less than ideal conditions and probably part time), you are accepting by default that the product will be inferior. |
this logic doesnt make sense to me. the paradigm, or business model, of how the current generation makes its music has absolutely ZERO to do with how, when, why, or how much the current generation will appreciate or consume their music.
if you think kids arent going beatles-style apeshit for their current faves, you arent going to shows (or you're not going to well attended shows or POPULAR shows, more specifically). kids are running on stage, tearing their shirts off, and jumping in the crowd; girls are crying, boobs are getting signed, fights are breaking out-its gonna happen tonite in lots of places in america and beyond.
this is the end of an era for some, and a beginning of an era for others.
Post by: DarinK on December 16, 2010, 04:49:42 PM
I really can't stand "Glee" but it very well may be setting us up for a better future, as young & very young people are influenced by its presentation of performing music. Heck, maybe somehow it will lead to more schools reinstating their music programs.
Post by: joeyhavoc on December 16, 2010, 05:00:16 PM
| kats wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 15:31 |
I'm not clear what you mean about the generational divide or what my post has to do with that. My point is that if you accept that artists will find a way to make music under this new model (which one would assume would be under less than ideal conditions and probably part time), you are accepting by default that the product will be inferior. And in your own words, they wouldn't know any better. I say that if you accept that the artists wouldn't know any better, then you have to accept that the listener will not know any better. Therefore, what we have is a race to the bottom. |
I believe that Jay's point is that some folks, like my grandfather for example, would say that this "race to the bottom" did not start this year, or the year that bit torrent was implemented, or the year Napster came out, or the year Pro Tools LE came out, or the year the internet was launched but back somewhere in 1950-1955. That's when the music paradigm shifted from trained crooners with a back up orchestra of trained musicians to bands of three and four "untrained musicians" recording fast and mono-dynamic songs consisting of I-IV-V chord progressions.
If one views let's say 1954 as the original paradigm shift that started the "race to the bottom", then that race accelerated when The Beatles came to the US.
joe
Post by: DarinK on December 16, 2010, 05:17:19 PM
| joeyhavoc wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 14:00 | ||
I believe that Jay's point is that some folks, like my grandfather for example, would say that this "race to the bottom" did not start this year, or the year that bit torrent was implemented, or the year Napster came out, or the year Pro Tools LE came out, or the year the internet was launched but back somewhere in 1950-1955. That's when the music paradigm shifted from trained crooners with a back up orchestra of trained musicians to bands of three and four "untrained musicians" recording fast and mono-dynamic songs consisting of I-IV-V chord progressions. If one views let's say 1954 as the original paradigm shift that started the "race to the bottom", then that race accelerated when The Beatles came to the US. joe |
Mono-dynamic I-IV-V songs existed for decades before that, in blues & folk music. The fifties was when it began to take dominance as the primary money-making form of music. The new paradigm is a possible loss of the whole idea of making money in music.
Post by: Jay Kadis on December 16, 2010, 05:23:17 PM
| DarinK wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 14:17 |
The new paradigm is a possible loss of the whole idea of making money in music. |
Post by: mgod on December 16, 2010, 05:24:02 PM
| rjd2 wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 13:46 |
if you think kids arent going beatles-style apeshit for their current faves, you arent going to shows (or you're not going to well attended shows or POPULAR shows, more specifically). kids are running on stage, tearing their shirts off, and jumping in the crowd; girls are crying, boobs are getting signed, fights are breaking out-its gonna happen tonite in lots of places in america and beyond. |
That's it!!!
Back on the road for me, pen in hand.
Post by: kats on December 16, 2010, 05:25:41 PM
Post by: kats on December 16, 2010, 05:33:43 PM
| joeyhavoc wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 16:00 | ||
I believe that Jay's point is that some folks, like my grandfather for example, would say that this "race to the bottom" did not start this year, or the year that bit torrent was implemented, or the year Napster came out, or the year Pro Tools LE came out, or the year the internet was launched but back somewhere in 1950-1955. That's when the music paradigm shifted from trained crooners with a back up orchestra of trained musicians to bands of three and four "untrained musicians" recording fast and mono-dynamic songs consisting of I-IV-V chord progressions. If one views let's say 1954 as the original paradigm shift that started the "race to the bottom", then that race accelerated when The Beatles came to the US. joe |
I don't see where Jay inferred any of this. He's just saying that the new generation is ignorant of how things were done in the past and will find new ways to satisfy their musical urges.
I am adding that the new listener will be just as ignorant.
Post by: joeyhavoc on December 16, 2010, 05:45:43 PM
| DarinK wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 16:17 |
Mono-dynamic I-IV-V songs existed for decades before that, in blues & folk music. The fifties was when it began to take dominance as the primary money-making form of music. The new paradigm is a possible loss of the whole idea of making money in music. |
Back then, to trained classical musicians who were making "all the money", the blues and folk musicians were considered amateurs and novelties at best and "not musicians" at worst. You're right, that all changed when it became more available and then more desirable than what came before.
From the perspective of those classical musicians, the new paradigm of rock and roll was the potential loss of their ability to make money in music. In fact, their fear came to pass. However, not all classical musicians went on the unemployment line. George Martin certainly did not. Arthur Fiedler did not. They rolled with the times.
Today, the fundamental shifts caused by technology both in the ability to record and distribute music presents another paradigm shift threatening the current musicians from making money in the future in the same manner that they do today. I do not believe that no one will make money on music in the future. I do believe that it will be in a different manner than 15 years ago or even 5 years ago. How each person rolls with the times remains to be seen.
joe
Post by: Jay Kadis on December 16, 2010, 05:46:20 PM
| kats wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 14:33 |
I don't see where Jay inferred any of this. He's just saying that the new generation is ignorant of how things were done in the past and will find new ways to satisfy their musical urges. I am adding that the new listener will be just as ignorant. |
What I'm saying is that today's best musicians and composers are able to work with the new tools and satisfy their musical urges with as much dedication as the older among us. They are using different tool sets but that in no way limits their ability to create a quality sound if that is what they want. Maybe their definition of quality is different from yours but that does not make it invalid.
Post by: kats on December 16, 2010, 05:54:40 PM
| Quote: |
I think its correct, what others mentioned above, that younger people will find their way in this 'new paradigm' as for them it is all normal & they are not traumatized by any sense of changes, frustration or loss. |
But then people incorrectly attributed my reply to something you said and I never bothered to check back (hehe).
Post by: DarinK on December 16, 2010, 07:52:33 PM
| Jay Kadis wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 14:23 | ||
|
It's true that the previous century will probably go down in history as the best for making money as a musician.
I do think that making an actual living as a musician will continue to become increasingly unlikely in the future, and making a living exclusively as a recording musician will be extremely rare.
Post by: Todd Loomis on December 16, 2010, 08:11:48 PM
| DarinK wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 17:52 |
I do think that making an actual living as a musician will continue to become increasingly unlikely in the future, and making a living exclusively as a recording musician will be extremely rare. |
All because of the inability to effectively protect copyright law.
Well hell... Let's be more positive! Kids are loving shows! The music is cheaper than ever! It's gonna be great! Embrace the future! (and be sure to embrace that part time job that you hate)
This thread is making me feel kind of down and negative. I need to start focusing my energies elsewhere. No sense wading in the cesspit. The reality is that this is the way things are. Life goes on... I'm lucky to have a job to pay my bills outside music. No matter how much I seem to focus on this stuff, it doesn't really seem to help me, and I doubt it helps any of you either. That being said... there's still the positive side. I'm excited to make music again. I am looking forward to playing more shows. I am excited to record and to be back in studio. It has been too long.
Post by: bjornson on December 16, 2010, 08:51:30 PM
| Silvertone wrote on Tue, 14 December 2010 12:49 | ||||
In real terms... pay down your debt and stock up on your firearms. I do have a solution that would help this country... How about universal health care for all instead of tax cuts for the rich? I'm tired of paying 1000.00 a month for my health care and 30.00 co-pays while I pay for the teacher, the policeman, the fireman, the federal, state, country, city workers and grandma and grandpa's (the ones who vote down "socialized medicine" of course are the ones who get "socialized medicine") to get free health care. The music industry is just a small cog in the bigger picture of what is happening but everybody who is "fat" in this country are just fine with the status quo. And since "the fat" are the ones who run this country we are all pretty much screwed. Until everybody has to pay for health insurance nothing will change... oh and by the way, here's how they work, they increased our health care by 18% last year and 17% this year... how nice as I make the same money I did as 30 f*cking years ago! |
With all due respect, and as sad as it is, the new paradigm seems to be:
Recorded music is not important enough to pay for.
Fewer people seem to be willing to spend money on the "product" that is being produced, including the talented work of the best this forum has to offer.
Even if we could solve the massive illegal downloading problem, the audience seem to have shifted their priorities. Listening to recorded music has become a background activity for many people. It's simple supply and demand.
It's the market sending the producers of the product a wake up call.
People are willing to pay for teachers, and to have trained people standing by to fight fires and arrest criminals, even to fill potholes. A plumber with a drain snake has a higher hourly rate than most well stocked studios.
Is it all fair? Nope.. Never has been, never will be.
The universe doesn't owe us shit.
I'm having a very good year financially, but only because I finally let go of the deep desire to keep my business model the way it was in 2000, with my big rooms, trying to provide for my family with the revenue my studio generated. It was a poor business model then but I didn't want to see the reality at first. Having a "real studio" was a large part of who I was. An ego trip. Pictures with industry giants...
I took some time and reevaluated my financial needs and goals. I completely changed my business model. Looking back I should of made these changes 5 years earlier. The unexpected benefit is that I now find myself working with musicians who never would of recorded an album at my studio, nice as it was. I still can't force myself to liquidate all my vintage gear, as I still maintain a well outfitted project studio that I lovingly call "the loss leader".
Bottom line,
I can't expect politicians or the free market to care about my families future..... That's my job..
Post by: bjornson on December 16, 2010, 09:08:00 PM
| rjd2 wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 21:46 | ||
this logic doesnt make sense to me. the paradigm, or business model, of how the current generation makes its music has absolutely ZERO to do with how, when, why, or how much the current generation will appreciate or consume their music. if you think kids arent going beatles-style apeshit for their current faves, you arent going to shows (or you're not going to well attended shows or POPULAR shows, more specifically). kids are running on stage, tearing their shirts off, and jumping in the crowd; girls are crying, boobs are getting signed, fights are breaking out-its gonna happen tonite in lots of places in america and beyond. this is the end of an era for some, and a beginning of an era for others. |
Yup. Back to live music boys, real and in the flesh. It can't be pirated or copied. People actually asking, Can they play? Does He/She have anything to say??
Post by: Gio on December 16, 2010, 10:07:39 PM
| bjornson wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 20:51 |
With all due respect, and as sad as it is, the new paradigm seems to be: Recorded music is not important enough to pay for. Fewer people seem to be willing to spend money on the "product" that is being produced, including the talented work of the best this forum has to offer. Even if we could solve the massive illegal downloading problem, the audience seem to have shifted their priorities. Listening to recorded music has become a background activity for many people. It's simple supply and demand. It's the market sending the producers of the product a wake up call. People are willing to pay for teachers, and to have trained people standing by to fight fires and arrest criminals, even to fill potholes. A plumber with a drain snake has a higher hourly rate than most well stocked studios. Is it all fair? Nope.. Never has been, never will be. The universe doesn't owe us shit. I'm having a very good year financially, but only because I finally let go of the deep desire to keep my business model the way it was in 2000, with my big rooms, trying to provide for my family with the revenue my studio generated. It was a poor business model then but I didn't want to see the reality at first. Having a "real studio" was a large part of who I was. An ego trip. Pictures with industry giants... I took some time and reevaluated my financial needs and goals. I completely changed my business model. Looking back I should of made these changes 5 years earlier. The unexpected benefit is that I now find myself working with musicians who never would of recorded an album at my studio, nice as it was. I still can't force myself to liquidate all my vintage gear, as I still maintain a well outfitted project studio that I lovingly call "the loss leader". Bottom line, I can't expect politicians or the free market to care about my families future..... That's my job.. |
Well said, but it's still a hard pill to swallow. I've not had a boss since I was 20. Perhaps I've been in denial the last 5 or so years, or just not seeing the signs. Nothing like starting from scratch in your mid 40s! Yee Haw!!!
Post by: Paul Cavins on December 16, 2010, 11:52:36 PM
I was wondering what songs they sold? The songs I saw on You Tube were all covers. I guess they sell their versions on iTunes?
PC
| Jay Kadis wrote on Wed, 15 December 2010 23:09 |
At the risk of returning to the original topic, I think the new paradigm is artists like Jack Conte. Jack was a student in my class several years ago. When he left school he started writing music and recording, making YouTube videos and promoting his music. He's half (he's really more than half) of the band Pomplamoose that is featured in several Hyundai Christmas ads recently. [Wikipedia says they sold over 100,000 songs (downloads) in 2009.] |
Post by: MagnetoSound on December 17, 2010, 01:00:23 AM
| joeyhavoc wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 22:00 | ||
I believe that Jay's point is that some folks, like my grandfather for example, would say that this "race to the bottom" did not start this year, or the year that bit torrent was implemented, or the year Napster came out, or the year Pro Tools LE came out, or the year the internet was launched but back somewhere in 1950-1955. That's when the music paradigm shifted from trained crooners with a back up orchestra of trained musicians to bands of three and four "untrained musicians" recording fast and mono-dynamic songs consisting of I-IV-V chord progressions. If one views let's say 1954 as the original paradigm shift that started the "race to the bottom", then that race accelerated when The Beatles came to the US. joe |
Perhaps, with the exponential acceleration in the growth of new technology in music (and in general), it's fair to say that the race to the bottom has accelerated exponentially along with it.
I remember both the introduction of MIDI and the advent of the CD being of particular disappointment to me in the mid eighties.
Post by: Silvertone on December 17, 2010, 07:20:40 AM
| bjornson wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 19:51 | ||||||
With all due respect, and as sad as it is, the new paradigm seems to be: Recorded music is not important enough to pay for. Fewer people seem to be willing to spend money on the "product" that is being produced, including the talented work of the best this forum has to offer. Even if we could solve the massive illegal downloading problem, the audience seem to have shifted their priorities. Listening to recorded music has become a background activity for many people. It's simple supply and demand. It's the market sending the producers of the product a wake up call. People are willing to pay for teachers, and to have trained people standing by to fight fires and arrest criminals, even to fill potholes. A plumber with a drain snake has a higher hourly rate than most well stocked studios. Is it all fair? Nope.. Never has been, never will be. The universe doesn't owe us shit. I'm having a very good year financially, but only because I finally let go of the deep desire to keep my business model the way it was in 2000, with my big rooms, trying to provide for my family with the revenue my studio generated. It was a poor business model then but I didn't want to see the reality at first. Having a "real studio" was a large part of who I was. An ego trip. Pictures with industry giants... I took some time and reevaluated my financial needs and goals. I completely changed my business model. Looking back I should of made these changes 5 years earlier. The unexpected benefit is that I now find myself working with musicians who never would of recorded an album at my studio, nice as it was. I still can't force myself to liquidate all my vintage gear, as I still maintain a well outfitted project studio that I lovingly call "the loss leader". Bottom line, I can't expect politicians or the free market to care about my families future..... That's my job.. |
Bottom line is I EXPECT my elected officials to do their job... for the people, not large corporations... that's is what nobody seems to get.
I work harder than ever and make less money and I'm suppose to take it in stride while the wealthy in this country take all the money... and that's my fault? BS!
Meanwhile what I pay for health insurance and prescriptions keeps going up every year... and not by some "set inflation rate" but at a greedy 17% and 18% every year. Who's keeping these guys in check... nobody, certainly not our elected officials.
Oh yeah and because I own the business I can't collect unemployment but the college grad who "applies" for a job on line qualifies... hello! 30+ years paying into a system I can never collect from... and they EXTEND the unemployment benefits because they can't create jobs in this country. Or worse yet, jobs that were, like recording engineer, producer, mastering engineer, musician no longer can sustain a living. But that's okay right??? Wake up people.
So we change and adapt... and they take more! Try paying for your own heath insurance people and you might get it. Might. It is as expensive as a mortgage payment. The guys who run the show are worse than the mob and our ELECTED officials back them up... because they are so filthy rich THEY DON"T GET IT EITHER!
I changed the Paradigm 10 years ago, it's how I survived to this day... now there is no more survival in this business. I have no overhead and can't make a living at it. I give away time to promote the industry, write articles, do beta testing and stay on these forums to keep the name out their. Only the jackass who bit torrents all his programs and then calls himself a mastering engineer and charges half the rate, steals all the business. Oh, he's not qualified but he is cheaper... and so it goes.
We are a cheap country and only getting cheaper (or should I say poorer), except for the wealthy, who are getting richer at the fastest rate ever.
WHO IS SUPPOSE TO BE LOOKING OUT FOR US??? That's right, our elected officials. We are so screwed! Wake up everybody cause in 10 more years there will be nothing left to save and I'm not talking about the music industry here folks.
I'm glad everybody is leaving the industry to make "real money" to support their HOBBY, but how does that benefit the industry really? Same thing is happening all over the country, we work for less money than ever before and we pay out more. We get a 2K tax break and the wealthy gets a 600K tax break and an inheritance tax break (so they can keep the money in the family... wouldn't want to have to pay taxes on all that money like a poor commoner!).
Robber barons run this country, we put laws into place 100 years ago to stop this but somehow our "elected officials" managed to turn this around in the last 30 years... trickle down means really to "piss on the little guy".
We are on a fast downhill slide (not only in our small industry) in the United States (and beyond)... I implore everybody to wake up and smell the greed... then do something about it.
Post by: Jay Kadis on December 17, 2010, 10:09:36 AM
| Paul Cavins wrote on Thu, 16 December 2010 20:52 |
Jay- I googled to find Pomplamoose after seeing those cute commercials, then I went to You Tube and watched some of their stuff. Very fun. I understand Hyundai's thinking. They are a very attractive couple of kids. Jack does a great job. I was wondering what songs they sold? The songs I saw on You Tube were all covers. I guess they sell their versions on iTunes? PC |
http://www.jackcontemusic.com/
Post by: bjornson on December 17, 2010, 10:39:03 AM
| Silvertone wrote on Fri, 17 December 2010 12:20 | ||||||||
Bottom line is I EXPECT my elected officials to do their job... for the people, not large corporations... that's is what nobody seems to get. I work harder than ever and make less money and I'm suppose to take it in stride while the wealthy in this country take all the money... and that's my fault? BS! Meanwhile what I pay for health insurance and prescriptions keeps going up every year... and not by some "set inflation rate" but at a greedy 17% and 18% every year. Who's keeping these guys in check... nobody, certainly not our elected officials. Oh yeah and because I own the business I can't collect unemployment but the college grad who "applies" for a job on line qualifies... hello! 30+ years paying into a system I can never collect from... and they EXTEND the unemployment benefits because they can't create jobs in this country. Or worse yet, jobs that were, like recording engineer, producer, mastering engineer, musician no longer can sustain a living. But that's okay right??? Wake up people. So we change and adapt... and they take more! Try paying for your own heath insurance people and you might get it. Might. It is as expensive as a mortgage payment. The guys who run the show are worse than the mob and our ELECTED officials back them up... because they are so filthy rich THEY DON"T GET IT EITHER! I changed the Paradigm 10 years ago, it's how I survived to this day... now there is no more survival in this business. I have no overhead and can't make a living at it. I give away time to promote the industry, write articles, do beta testing and stay on these forums to keep the name out their. Only the jackass who bit torrents all his programs and then calls himself a mastering engineer and charges half the rate, steals all the business. Oh, he's not qualified but he is cheaper... and so it goes. We are a cheap country and only getting cheaper (or should I say poorer), except for the wealthy, who are getting richer at the fastest rate ever. WHO IS SUPPOSE TO BE LOOKING OUT FOR US??? That's right, our elected officials. We are so screwed! Wake up everybody cause in 10 more years there will be nothing left to save and I'm not talking about the music industry here folks. I'm glad everybody is leaving the industry to make "real money" to support their HOBBY, but how does that benefit the industry really? Same thing is happening all over the country, we work for less money than ever before and we pay out more. We get a 2K tax break and the wealthy gets a 600K tax break and an inheritance tax break (so they can keep the money in the family... wouldn't want to have to pay taxes on all that money like a poor commoner!). Robber barons run this country, we put laws into place 100 years ago to stop this but somehow our "elected officials" managed to turn this around in the last 30 years... trickle down means really to "piss on the little guy". We are on a fast downhill slide (not only in our small industry) in the United States (and beyond)... I implore everybody to wake up and smell the greed... then do something about it. |
Larry, While I agree wholeheartedly, and participate politically on the local, state and federal level I'm not depending on elected officials to impact my life in a positive way anytime soon...
Call me a pessimist.
I've heard your work, and you're extremely talented. My point is, the market for that service seems to be disappearing and I don't see any easy way to change that.
I can't wait for the situation to improve, I have to improve my situation.
With that said I'll share a bit more of my own personal journey, not directed to you, but to anyone in the audio field who's feeling pinched.
I'm 46 with 4 kids. I pay $900/month in health insurance. I'm putting 4 kids through private school, and have a mortgage. I don't have a trust fund, Just a IRA I've been babying along for 25 years...
I simply HAD to find a way to generate 7K take home a month before even putting gas in my car or buying a hamburger. I could not do this on the income from my studio alone. I was really struggling financially and had a partner that was less than forthcoming about a certain "personal problem".
I had to make a 180 degree change in my thinking and create new revenue streams FAST or I was screwed. I sold my studio and bought 13 acres with a big farm house and barns, one of which houses my wife's dance studio. (Ask me about aquaponics some other time)... I sold one of my 9' grand pianos and bought a giant rack of wireless lavs. Guess which one generates actual revenue? Sold one of my giant analog consoles and bought truss, chain hoists and my first line array. Traded my seat in the studio for a seat in a broadcast truck mixing for FOX and NBC. My fresh new ride is a freaking Mitsu BOX TRUCK. Instead of arguing the nuance of mic pres,drum heads and guitar strings, I'm converging my Christie 10k DLP projectors. Services and gear people with budgets will pay for.
I repeat: Services and gear people with budgets will pay for.
Hell I bought 300' of 16' velour pipe and drape! Rental price? $7/foot per day...
I improved my Vectorworks skills and started doing theatrical sound design and installations.
I mastered Smaart and made my goal to bring studio aesthetics, gear and quality to the live sound world. Neves, API, Alan Smart and 1176 mixed with digital consoles at a front of house position? Yup. Sm7's,KM84's and beyer 160's on stage? Yup.
Learned the newest network protocols and how they relate the the audio world. Mobile rental Protools racks with multipin breakouts. Partnered with a venue and Installed one of my PA's/Euphonix/outboard/PT/cameras etc.
I've met a whole new network of clients, even some who actually......
Ask me about studio time...
My point is sometimes what seems like a dire situation can turn into something great if you're willing to reinvent yourself.
WHATEVER WORKS.
Good luck and Happy holidays!
Post by: mgod on December 17, 2010, 10:53:47 AM
Post by: Nick Sevilla on December 17, 2010, 01:10:06 PM
| Silvertone wrote on Fri, 17 December 2010 04:20 |
Bottom line is I EXPECT my elected officials to do their job... for the people, not large corporations... that's is what nobody seems to get. I work harder than ever and make less money and I'm suppose to take it in stride while the wealthy in this country take all the money... and that's my fault? BS! Meanwhile what I pay for health insurance and prescriptions keeps going up every year... and not by some "set inflation rate" but at a greedy 17% and 18% every year. Who's keeping these guys in check... nobody, certainly not our elected officials. Oh yeah and because I own the business I can't collect unemployment but the college grad who "applies" for a job on line qualifies... hello! 30+ years paying into a system I can never collect from... and they EXTEND the unemployment benefits because they can't create jobs in this country. Or worse yet, jobs that were, like recording engineer, producer, mastering engineer, musician no longer can sustain a living. But that's okay right??? Wake up people. So we change and adapt... and they take more! Try paying for your own heath insurance people and you might get it. Might. It is as expensive as a mortgage payment. The guys who run the show are worse than the mob and our ELECTED officials back them up... because they are so filthy rich THEY DON"T GET IT EITHER! I changed the Paradigm 10 years ago, it's how I survived to this day... now there is no more survival in this business. I have no overhead and can't make a living at it. I give away time to promote the industry, write articles, do beta testing and stay on these forums to keep the name out their. Only the jackass who bit torrents all his programs and then calls himself a mastering engineer and charges half the rate, steals all the business. Oh, he's not qualified but he is cheaper... and so it goes. We are a cheap country and only getting cheaper (or should I say poorer), except for the wealthy, who are getting richer at the fastest rate ever. WHO IS SUPPOSE TO BE LOOKING OUT FOR US??? That's right, our elected officials. We are so screwed! Wake up everybody cause in 10 more years there will be nothing left to save and I'm not talking about the music industry here folks. I'm glad everybody is leaving the industry to make "real money" to support their HOBBY, but how does that benefit the industry really? Same thing is happening all over the country, we work for less money than ever before and we pay out more. We get a 2K tax break and the wealthy gets a 600K tax break and an inheritance tax break (so they can keep the money in the family... wouldn't want to have to pay taxes on all that money like a poor commoner!). Robber barons run this country, we put laws into place 100 years ago to stop this but somehow our "elected officials" managed to turn this around in the last 30 years... trickle down means really to "piss on the little guy". We are on a fast downhill slide (not only in our small industry) in the United States (and beyond)... I implore everybody to wake up and smell the greed... then do something about it. |
Agreed.
Just as an example.
I grew up in Mexico City during the beginning of that country's slide to hell in the early 1970s. I left there in 1990.
I laugh out loud at what is happening to the USA now.
Because it is exactly the same as to what happened in Mexico 30 plus years ago.
Greedy INDIVIDUALS got their hands on too much power, and bent it to their selfish wants.
BTW, in case anyone is paying attention to history, "we the people" originally rebelled against EXACTLY the same type of abuses from rich powerful INDIVIDUALS, when "we the people" became independent from England.
And so it has been since organized society came into existence at the beginning of recorded human history.
The issue here really, is what are "we the people" going to do about the current crop of powerful INDIVIDUALS who are now doing EXACTLY the same as all earlier persons in power?
In Mexico, it took overthrowing the established poilitical party, the P.R.I. for the other party.
Unfortunately for Mexico, the other party, the Partido Accion Nacional, turned out to have the same deficciencies as the P.R.I. plus the added bonus of no experience in running a Country.
At least with that move the Mexican people learned that "we the people" CAN change things, peacefully.
If peaceful means do not work however, I would recommend the other alternative. Sad, but, if you want to be controlled LESS by someone else whom you do not even know, or will ever meet, sometimes you have to put your foot down. YOUR foot.
I feel as though this country is a long way from getting fed up with being raped by the people in power.
Why? Two reasons, and these go back to Roman times:
1.- BREAD. As long as the bellies are full of most of the citizens, they will not revolt.
2.- CIRCUS. As long as the citizens have entertainment to distract them, they will not revolt.
It is right in there in Caesar's writings, and many other people of that time.
And it find it very interesting that it applies to today's times.
Cheers
Post by: maxim on December 17, 2010, 03:01:27 PM
imo, that's all there is really
all animals are just hungry plants
we spend our lives either digesting or looking for food
(of course, the whole sorry sociopolitical structure that we've been trying to fix, stems from the "corporatisation" of the food producing practices by the messopotamians and the egyptians a long long time ago)
"2.- CIRCUS. As long as the citizens have entertainment to distract them, they will not revolt."
therefore, musicians will always have work
as for mastering (or other) engineers...
anyone can learn to turn virtual knobs on their laptop or purchase excellent gear from chance's group buy
what people will always lack is talent and experience...
Post by: mgod on December 21, 2010, 08:39:34 PM
Post by: kats on December 21, 2010, 10:09:59 PM
Post by: maxim on December 23, 2010, 05:05:29 PM
i've been thinking about that one...
Post by: Ryan G on January 03, 2011, 03:01:04 PM
Market value is based on supply, if there is a ton of something out there people expect to pay less. Music (in the form of 1s and 0s) is so readily available to the masses that the public perspective has changed. I recently asked a few of my best friends that are not in the biz a simple question, "is illegal downloading just as bad as placing a physical CD under your jacket and walking out of the store?" 90% had no problem with illegal downloading and thought the scenarios were different. Modern labels and a lot of us have only tried to put a band-aid over the problem, with no one really focusing on a solution. I have no problem with giving music away for free, but in turn the customer is giving you something else. Whether it is an email for your list or cash for other goods. Bundle a free download with a Tshirt. You were going to get the shirt made anyway, now you're creating a your own market; even if the generic market is flooded.
One example...but I digress. The problem for those of us on the other side of the glass is that the people that normally pay us aren't adapting, they're too busy keeping their heads above water. I hate to say it, but I think free is the price of the future. A great read about it can be found http://www.amazon.com/Free-Future-Radical-Chris-Anderson/dp/ 1401322905 there. The audio book is also available for free in the iTunes podcast library.
Sorry, this topic has been on my mind the last couple of days, thanks for letting me vent and ramble.
Happy new year! May this year yield more 1099s that ever before!
Post by: joeyhavoc on January 03, 2011, 06:14:00 PM
| Ryan G wrote on Mon, 03 January 2011 14:01 |
Market value is based on supply, if there is a ton of something out there people expect to pay less. Music (in the form of 1s and 0s) is so readily available to the masses that the public perspective has changed. I recently asked a few of my best friends that are not in the biz a simple question, "is illegal downloading just as bad as placing a physical CD under your jacket and walking out of the store?" 90% had no problem with illegal downloading and thought the scenarios were different. Modern labels and a lot of us have only tried to put a band-aid over the problem, with no one really focusing on a solution. I have no problem with giving music away for free, but in turn the customer is giving you something else. Whether it is an email for your list or cash for other goods. Bundle a free download with a Tshirt. You were going to get the shirt made anyway, now you're creating a your own market; even if the generic market is flooded. One example...but I digress. The problem for those of us on the other side of the glass is that the people that normally pay us aren't adapting, they're too busy keeping their heads above water. I hate to say it, but I think free is the price of the future. A great read about it can be found http://www.amazon.com/Free-Future-Radical-Chris-Anderson/dp/ 1401322905 there. The audio book is also available for free in the iTunes podcast library. |
http://www.hulu.com/watch/4253/saturday-night-live-first-cit ywide-change-bank-2
I liked Anderson's book The Long Tail. I have not read this one yet although it has mixed reviews. From the discussions that I read regarding his latest book, he liberally paints a picture that all things should or will be free and I don't think that this is true. There are two challenges with the free business model:
1. The thing that you give away for free must enable future revenue streams- or else you end up like First Citywide Change Bank
2. The business that is giving away something for free is in full control of what they are giving away for free, how much and under what circumstances.
While it's great that Chinese bands are able to make a great living on gigs in China based on free music giveaways, the same is not universally true in the US. If I give people a free phone with a service contract, the phone becomes a promotional item. I get to write off the phone as a marketing expense AND I get guaranteed monthly income from that phone. If I give someone a free browser for a game that requires the purchase of digital assets to play, I have a reasonable expectation that some number of free browsers will generate ongoing sales. In music, I have no such guarantees that giving away a free song will generate a gig for my band or the purchase of an album. I highly doubt that the local rock club in Seattle will care that I'm giving my music away for free. Until there is a mechanism where bands can truly prove how many legitimate free downloads their music generated AND rock clubs trust and base business decisions on those stats, there won't be a direct correlation between free download music, getting a gig and the cut you get of the door.
Secondly, the examples discussed from the book were ones in which the entity giving away the free item was largely in control of the give away. In music, people are stealing product where the artist has no control of how much, under what conditions, or with a strategic promotion directed at future sales. So while you may intend to give one song away for free, under the current circumstances one person can buy the album and give the rest away free for you, whether that was your intention or not.
joe
Post by: Bill Mueller on January 04, 2011, 09:53:16 AM
| joeyhavoc wrote on Mon, 03 January 2011 18:14 | ||
http://www.hulu.com/watch/4253/saturday-night-live-first-cit ywide-change-bank-2 I liked Anderson's book The Long Tail. I have not read this one yet although it has mixed reviews. From the discussions that I read regarding his latest book, he liberally paints a picture that all things should or will be free and I don't think that this is true. There are two challenges with the free business model: 1. The thing that you give away for free must enable future revenue streams- or else you end up like First Citywide Change Bank 2. The business that is giving away something for free is in full control of what they are giving away for free, how much and under what circumstances. While it's great that Chinese bands are able to make a great living on gigs in China based on free music giveaways, the same is not universally true in the US. If I give people a free phone with a service contract, the phone becomes a promotional item. I get to write off the phone as a marketing expense AND I get guaranteed monthly income from that phone. If I give someone a free browser for a game that requires the purchase of digital assets to play, I have a reasonable expectation that some number of free browsers will generate ongoing sales. In music, I have no such guarantees that giving away a free song will generate a gig for my band or the purchase of an album. I highly doubt that the local rock club in Seattle will care that I'm giving my music away for free. Until there is a mechanism where bands can truly prove how many legitimate free downloads their music generated AND rock clubs trust and base business decisions on those stats, there won't be a direct correlation between free download music, getting a gig and the cut you get of the door. Secondly, the examples discussed from the book were ones in which the entity giving away the free item was largely in control of the give away. In music, people are stealing product where the artist has no control of how much, under what conditions, or with a strategic promotion directed at future sales. So while you may intend to give one song away for free, under the current circumstances one person can buy the album and give the rest away free for you, whether that was your intention or not. joe |
Joe,
Right. I just want to add that the Long Tail is discredited. The long tail may work for the Amazon/Ebay reseller, but NONE of the content creators make money.
Bill
Post by: Les Ismore on January 04, 2011, 11:42:26 AM
Post by: joeyhavoc on January 04, 2011, 11:48:34 AM
| Bill Mueller wrote on Tue, 04 January 2011 08:53 |
Right. I just want to add that the Long Tail is discredited. The long tail may work for the Amazon/Ebay reseller, but NONE of the content creators make money. |
Discredited? By whom? Please give me the names of these supposed experts.
NONE of the content creators make money?
There are many small hobby game creators, electronic game creators and audio equipment manufacturers making very reasonable businesses right now using long tail strategies. Those are three industries that I have been involved in recently that I have personally witnessed companies succeeding without going to big box chains and carving their fortunes through the internet with smaller groups of consumers.
If there are in fact multiple business making money using long tail strategies, that kind of discredits the dis-creditors, don't ya think?!?
While I agree that it is not working for musical content creators, I believe that is more of a function of piracy than because the long tail does not work.
joe
Post by: blairl on January 04, 2011, 12:10:17 PM
| joeyhavoc wrote on Tue, 04 January 2011 09:48 |
NONE of the content creators make money? |
80% of the music legitimately available for sale online NEVER sells. This suggests the Long Tail Theory isn't working for music sales.
Reference
Post by: Jay Kadis on January 04, 2011, 12:50:41 PM
| blairl wrote on Tue, 04 January 2011 09:10 | ||
80% of the music legitimately available for sale online NEVER sells. This suggests the Long Tail Theory isn't working for music sales. |
If 80% of the for-sale music never sells, I'm doing better than I thought.
Post by: Tomas Danko on January 05, 2011, 07:04:02 AM
| Les Ismore wrote on Tue, 04 January 2011 16:42 |
It seems to me that in pretty much all of the "new paradigms" the content creator doesn't get paid..... |
Service providing corporations are valued higher on Wall Street and NASDAQ than content creating corporations of similar size.
Go figure.
Post by: Bill Mueller on January 05, 2011, 12:02:23 PM
| joeyhavoc wrote on Tue, 04 January 2011 11:48 | ||
Discredited? By whom? Please give me the names of these supposed experts. NONE of the content creators make money? There are many small hobby game creators, electronic game creators and audio equipment manufacturers making very reasonable businesses right now using long tail strategies. Those are three industries that I have been involved in recently that I have personally witnessed companies succeeding without going to big box chains and carving their fortunes through the internet with smaller groups of consumers. If there are in fact multiple business making money using long tail strategies, that kind of discredits the dis-creditors, don't ya think?!? While I agree that it is not working for musical content creators, I believe that is more of a function of piracy than because the long tail does not work. joe |
Joey,
From Chris Anderson's own mouth to your ears.
http://www.longtail.com/the_long_tail/2008/11/does-the-long- t.html
"Finally, it's not all about money. As I've said many times, both in the book and elsewhere, most of the rewards in the Tail are non-monetary: a larger audience for producers, and more choice for consumers. Sometimes those can lead to economic benefits, but often they can't. Today, a decade into the arrival of unlimited variety online, the Long Tail is still more of a cultural force than an economic one."
While he has said this in the past, his book got traction talking about the "new economics" of the long tail, not the new socialism of the long tail. Money talks and BS walks.
Bill
Post by: Chris Moore on January 05, 2011, 12:48:56 PM
| blairl wrote on Tue, 04 January 2011 12:10 | ||
80% of the music legitimately available for sale online NEVER sells. This suggests the Long Tail Theory isn't working for music sales. |
Not necessarily-consider that a good majority of the music recorded since the beginning of recording is available for sale online. People are generally only interested in current music and classic, acclaimed records from the past. A Hungarian prog-psych record from 1971 that only sold 450 copies on its release may be online for purchase now-but how many people are interested in buying it now? Are people buying The Monkees' 1980s album, or Poison's album from 2000? Also consider how many albums of techno or bedroom Garageband amateur junk are available to buy. What percentage of the entire history of music is genuinely interesting to the average music buyer?
Post by: blairl on January 05, 2011, 02:01:53 PM
| Chris Moore wrote on Wed, 05 January 2011 10:48 | ||||
Not necessarily-consider that a good majority of the music recorded since the beginning of recording is available for sale online. People are generally only interested in current music and classic, acclaimed records from the past. A Hungarian prog-psych record from 1971 that only sold 450 copies on its release may be online for purchase now-but how many people are interested in buying it now? Are people buying The Monkees' 1980s album, or Poison's album from 2000? Also consider how many albums of techno or bedroom Garageband amateur junk are available to buy. What percentage of the entire history of music is genuinely interesting to the average music buyer? |
I understand your point. However, "the Long Tail" is exactly what you are describing: obscure products. The theory suggests that a successful business model is to sell many different hard to find or obscure items instead of just focusing on selling a few popular items. What you describe backs the point I was making. The fact that 80% of music available for sale never sells suggests that the Long Tail theory is not working for music sales.
Post by: joeyhavoc on January 05, 2011, 02:49:49 PM
| Bill Mueller wrote on Wed, 05 January 2011 11:02 |
Money talks and BS walks. |
For the last 10 years I have been earning a living working on businesses that operate out of the shadow of big box stores and focus their efforts in the long tail area as described in his book.
I don't know how I will explain to my wife that the last 10 years of my life haven't actually existed.
joe
Post by: maxim on January 05, 2011, 03:08:08 PM
maybe it suggests that 80% of music available for sale isn't worth buying?
just cos you build it, doesn't mean they'll come....
Post by: joeyhavoc on January 05, 2011, 03:22:38 PM
| maxim wrote on Wed, 05 January 2011 14:08 |
just cos you build it, doesn't mean they'll come.... |
Many companies have gotten into financial trouble over the Field of Dreams business plan. If "they come" (and buy...), it's because of two things:
1. They found what you built
2. They liked what you built
In business, it is not enough to merely build "something" and stick it somewhere on the internet.
Post by: RMoore on January 05, 2011, 04:36:24 PM
It seems that the 'Long Tail' may not be all that great for the the music biz...
http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertai nment/music/article5380304.ece
December 22, 2008
Long Tail theory contradicted as study reveals 10m digital music tracks unsold
Digital sales figures dent niche market theory
Patrick Foster, Media Correspondent
The internet was supposed to bring vast choice for customers, access to obscure and forgotten products - and a fortune for sellers who focused on niche markets.
But a study of digital music sales has posed the first big challenge to this “long tail” theory: more than 10 million of the 13 million tracks available on the internet failed to find a single buyer last year.
The idea that niche markets were the key to the future for internet sellers was described as one of the most important economic models of the 21st century when it was spelt out by Chris Anderson in his book The Long Tail in 2006. He used data from an American online music retailer to predict that the internet economy would shift from a relatively small number of “hits” - mainstream products - at the head of the demand curve toward a “huge number of niches in the tail”.
However, a new study by Will Page, chief economist of the MCPS-PRS Alliance, the not-for-profit royalty collection society, suggests that the niche market is not an untapped goldmine and that online sales success still relies on big hits. They found that, for the online singles market, 80 per cent of all revenue came from around 52,000 tracks. For albums, the figures were even more stark. Of the 1.23 million available, only 173,000 were ever bought, meaning 85 per cent did not sell a single copy all year.
Related Links
Mr Anderson told The Times yesterday that he accepted that Mr Page and his co-researcher, Andrew Bud, the head of mobile software company mBlox, had found a dataset in which the “long tail” principle did not apply. But he said further conclusions could not be drawn until the data and its sources were published.
Mr Page and Mr Bud believe, however, that their findings seriously undermine Mr Anderson’s thesis, which came with subtitles such as: How endless choice is creating unlimited demand and Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More.
“I think people believed in a fat, fertile long tail because they wanted it to be true,” said Mr Bud. “The statistical theories used to justify that theory were intelligent and plausible. But they turned out to be wrong. The data tells a quite different story. For the first time, we know what the true demand for digital music looks like.”
Mr Page, who carried out the economic modelling for Radiohead’s In Rainbows album, which was released free on the internet, said: “The relative size of the dormant ‘zero sellers’ tail was truly jaw-dropping. Rather than continue to believe the selective claims of ‘here’s another great example of the long tail at work’, we wanted to find out how longtail markets should be analysed, plotted and interpreted.”
However, Mr Anderson named by Time magazine as one of the world’s 100 most influential people - told The Times: “There is a reason why the ‘long tail’ has become a fixture in the technology world over the past five years - it fits countless phenomena we see every day.
“I respect what Will’s done and have no doubt that he has indeed found a dataset where it doesn’t work, but I’m not sure you can conclude much, if anything, beyond that. If he’s trying to undermine the entire Long Tail Theory, he’ll have to provide a lot more evidence. I welcome the debate, but until Will’s prepared to publish data and sources we don’t have much to talk about.”
Mr Page and Mr Bud found that, rather than following Mr Anderson’s predictions, online music sales followed instead a sales distribution laid down by Robert Goodell Brown, an American economist, in 1956.
Mr Brown, who was an academic at Yale, outlined the theory in Statistical Forecasting For Inventory Control, a landmark tract on inventory control that focused on the sales of industrial items such as rivets and widgets.
Mr Page said: “There is an eerie similarity between a digital and high-street retailer in terms of what constitutes an efficient inventory and the shape of their respective demand curves. I think there’s something more going on there: a case of new schools meets old rules.”
Mr Page and Mr Bud are working on a book of their findings and hope to stage a debate with Mr Anderson in Brighton next May.
The long and short of it
—Chris Anderson’s The Long Tail challenged the “80/20 rule” widely accepted in retailing. This suggests that selling the most popular 20 per cent of products is the way to make a profit as they will account for 80 per cent of sales
—Anderson’s analysis of online music sales suggested that, thanks to the cheapness, simplicity and global accessibility of searching for products online, retailers could make money from more obscure products because they would always find an audience
—An employee of Amazon, a company seen as an example of the Long Tail Theory in practice, once said: “We sold more books today that didn’t sell at all yesterday than we sold today of all the books that did sell yesterday”
—Eric Schmidt, the CEO of Google, described The Long Tail as “brilliant and timely”. Malcolm Gladwell, the writer and sociologist, labelled it a “Truly Big Idea”
—Critics suggest the book is more a projection of an idealised market place than a model of a real one
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/05/13/long_tail_p2p/
By Andrew Orlowski •
, 13th May 2009 19:09 GMT
A study of P2P music exchanges to be revealed this week suggests that the ailing music business is shunning a lucrative lifeline by refusing to license the activity for money.
Entitled "The Long Tail of P2P", the study by Will Page of performing rights society PRS For Music and Eric Garland of P2P research outfit Big Champagne will be aired at The Great Escape music convention tomorrow. It's a follow-up to Page's study last year which helped debunk the myth of the "Long Tail". Page examined song purchases at a large online digital retail store, which showed that out of an inventory of 13 million songs, 10 million had never been downloaded, even once. It suggested that the idea proposed by WiReD magazine editor Chris Anderson, who in 2004 urged that the future of business was digital retailers carrying larger inventories of slow-selling items was a Utopian fantasy.
The P2P networks are harder to quantify, but apparently show a similar pattern, where most of the action - and profit - is in the 'head'. Each Top 100 CD on on PirateBay averaged 58,000 downloads a week, for example. Lady GaGa's The Fame was downloaded 388,000 times in a week from PirateBay alone. Like its predecessor, the new study also finds that downloads follow a log-normal, rather a Pareto (or "power curve") distribution as Anderson envisaged. The WiReD man had guessed the shape of the internet - and picked the wrong shape
*********************
Post by: Bob Olhsson on January 05, 2011, 05:29:57 PM
That's why I call them bozos.
Post by: Bill Mueller on January 05, 2011, 05:33:57 PM
| RMoore wrote on Wed, 05 January 2011 16:36 |
It seems that the 'Long Tail' may not be all that great for the the music biz... http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertai nment/music/article5380304.ece December 22, 2008 Long Tail theory contradicted as study reveals 10m digital music tracks unsold Digital sales figures dent niche market theory Patrick Foster, Media Correspondent The internet was supposed to bring vast choice for customers, access to obscure and forgotten products - and a fortune for sellers who focused on niche markets. But a study of digital music sales has posed the first big challenge to this “long tail” theory: more than 10 million of the 13 million tracks available on the internet failed to find a single buyer last year. The idea that niche markets were the key to the future for internet sellers was described as one of the most important economic models of the 21st century when it was spelt out by Chris Anderson in his book The Long Tail in 2006. He used data from an American online music retailer to predict that the internet economy would shift from a relatively small number of “hits” - mainstream products - at the head of the demand curve toward a “huge number of niches in the tail”. However, a new study by Will Page, chief economist of the MCPS-PRS Alliance, the not-for-profit royalty collection society, suggests that the niche market is not an untapped goldmine and that online sales success still relies on big hits. They found that, for the online singles market, 80 per cent of all revenue came from around 52,000 tracks. For albums, the figures were even more stark. Of the 1.23 million available, only 173,000 were ever bought, meaning 85 per cent did not sell a single copy all year. Related Links Mr Anderson told The Times yesterday that he accepted that Mr Page and his co-researcher, Andrew Bud, the head of mobile software company mBlox, had found a dataset in which the “long tail” principle did not apply. But he said further conclusions could not be drawn until the data and its sources were published. Mr Page and Mr Bud believe, however, that their findings seriously undermine Mr Anderson’s thesis, which came with subtitles such as: How endless choice is creating unlimited demand and Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More. “I think people believed in a fat, fertile long tail because they wanted it to be true,” said Mr Bud. “The statistical theories used to justify that theory were intelligent and plausible. But they turned out to be wrong. The data tells a quite different story. For the first time, we know what the true demand for digital music looks like.” Mr Page, who carried out the economic modelling for Radiohead’s In Rainbows album, which was released free on the internet, said: “The relative size of the dormant ‘zero sellers’ tail was truly jaw-dropping. Rather than continue to believe the selective claims of ‘here’s another great example of the long tail at work’, we wanted to find out how longtail markets should be analysed, plotted and interpreted.” However, Mr Anderson named by Time magazine as one of the world’s 100 most influential people - told The Times: “There is a reason why the ‘long tail’ has become a fixture in the technology world over the past five years - it fits countless phenomena we see every day. “I respect what Will’s done and have no doubt that he has indeed found a dataset where it doesn’t work, but I’m not sure you can conclude much, if anything, beyond that. If he’s trying to undermine the entire Long Tail Theory, he’ll have to provide a lot more evidence. I welcome the debate, but until Will’s prepared to publish data and sources we don’t have much to talk about.” Mr Page and Mr Bud found that, rather than following Mr Anderson’s predictions, online music sales followed instead a sales distribution laid down by Robert Goodell Brown, an American economist, in 1956. Mr Brown, who was an academic at Yale, outlined the theory in Statistical Forecasting For Inventory Control, a landmark tract on inventory control that focused on the sales of industrial items such as rivets and widgets. Mr Page said: “There is an eerie similarity between a digital and high-street retailer in terms of what constitutes an efficient inventory and the shape of their respective demand curves. I think there’s something more going on there: a case of new schools meets old rules.” Mr Page and Mr Bud are working on a book of their findings and hope to stage a debate with Mr Anderson in Brighton next May. The long and short of it —Chris Anderson’s The Long Tail challenged the “80/20 rule” widely accepted in retailing. This suggests that selling the most popular 20 per cent of products is the way to make a profit as they will account for 80 per cent of sales —Anderson’s analysis of online music sales suggested that, thanks to the cheapness, simplicity and global accessibility of searching for products online, retailers could make money from more obscure products because they would always find an audience —An employee of Amazon, a company seen as an example of the Long Tail Theory in practice, once said: “We sold more books today that didn’t sell at all yesterday than we sold today of all the books that did sell yesterday” —Eric Schmidt, the CEO of Google, described The Long Tail as “brilliant and timely”. Malcolm Gladwell, the writer and sociologist, labelled it a “Truly Big Idea” —Critics suggest the book is more a projection of an idealised market place than a model of a real one http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/05/13/long_tail_p2p/ By Andrew Orlowski • , 13th May 2009 19:09 GMT A study of P2P music exchanges to be revealed this week suggests that the ailing music business is shunning a lucrative lifeline by refusing to license the activity for money. Entitled "The Long Tail of P2P", the study by Will Page of performing rights society PRS For Music and Eric Garland of P2P research outfit Big Champagne will be aired at The Great Escape music convention tomorrow. It's a follow-up to Page's study last year which helped debunk the myth of the "Long Tail". Page examined song purchases at a large online digital retail store, which showed that out of an inventory of 13 million songs, 10 million had never been downloaded, even once. It suggested that the idea proposed by WiReD magazine editor Chris Anderson, who in 2004 urged that the future of business was digital retailers carrying larger inventories of slow-selling items was a Utopian fantasy. The P2P networks are harder to quantify, but apparently show a similar pattern, where most of the action - and profit - is in the 'head'. Each Top 100 CD on on PirateBay averaged 58,000 downloads a week, for example. Lady GaGa's The Fame was downloaded 388,000 times in a week from PirateBay alone. Like its predecessor, the new study also finds that downloads follow a log-normal, rather a Pareto (or "power curve") distribution as Anderson envisaged. The WiReD man had guessed the shape of the internet - and picked the wrong shape ********************* |
Ryan,
Quoted for emphasis.
Bill
Post by: Eric H. on January 05, 2011, 05:44:13 PM
| Bob Olhsson wrote on Wed, 05 January 2011 22:29 |
It seems pretty obvious to me that the "new paradigm" is ten bozos on Wall Street being the only people who remain entitled to get paid. They haven't figured out that no jobs = no "consumers" to buy anything. That's why I call them bozos. |
I think that Bob, you summed up here my thoughts about the current economic model across europe and usa.
Every social right is being slowly denied while taxes are rising, health and education and laws are treated like any other business (like selling soap or shoes), and people in power have only one thought in mind : down-freaking-sizing. It is an already old tale of which we will soon read the end.
Like you said : no income for families=no consumer. Which leads you to conclude : the financial/political spheres want the decline of our way of life so that there only remains 2 kind of people : the wealthy and the slaves. That is something our 21th century will be confronted to, as the rise of China and other countries economically imposes their non-democratic views on our "democratic" western countries.
Post by: Bob Olhsson on January 05, 2011, 05:46:11 PM
| RMoore wrote on Wed, 05 January 2011 15:36 |
...The WiReD man had guessed the shape of the internet - and picked the wrong shape... |
My problem was that they somehow expected the creative community to go first in surrendering our property rights to "the commons" because we were so kewl and had so much grass roots support from the community. Myself, I'd been watching average musician's and recording engineer's incomes in a constant decline since the late 1960s.
Post by: joeyhavoc on January 05, 2011, 05:46:18 PM
| Bill Mueller wrote on Wed, 05 January 2011 16:33 |
Ryan, Quoted for emphasis. Bill |
So Amazon is quoted as saying it works for books. Mr. Page shows that it isn't working for music downloads.
That doesn't mean that The Long Tail is 100% debunked, it means it ain't working in music downloads.
Post by: Ryan G on January 05, 2011, 06:07:35 PM
Post by: Bill Mueller on January 05, 2011, 06:10:18 PM
| joeyhavoc wrote on Wed, 05 January 2011 17:46 | ||
So Amazon is quoted as saying it works for books. Mr. Page shows that it isn't working for music downloads. That doesn't mean that The Long Tail is 100% debunked, it means it ain't working in music downloads. |
Joey,
I will try again. The long tail works for Amazon as a Long Tail aggregator, but the contributors fail. The long tail eventually ends up a wasteland of used stuff, vanity press and vanity music. Read the articles.
I have some experience in the publishing industry and it's in worse shape than the music industry. Small publishers can't GIVE their books away and only the mega hits like Harry Potter actually make money.
Bill
Post by: joeyhavoc on January 05, 2011, 09:37:03 PM
| Bill Mueller wrote on Wed, 05 January 2011 17:10 |
Joey, I will try again. The long tail works for Amazon as a Long Tail aggregator, but the contributors fail. The long tail eventually ends up a wasteland of used stuff, vanity press and vanity music. Read the articles. I have some experience in the publishing industry and it's in worse shape than the music industry. Small publishers can't GIVE their books away and only the mega hits like Harry Potter actually make money. Bill |
Bill,
And I will try again...
You make broad sweeping generalizations using words like no one, none, 100%, completely etc. My point is that your sweeping generalization of absoluteness is myopic, misinformed and incorrect. There are businesses right now making money by focusing not on generating the big hit but by finding a niche within the tail and hammering it home.
"Small publishers can't GIVE their books away"? This guy isn't giving them away, he's making money. http://www.montecook.com/cgi-bin/page.cgi?splash
Monte left his corporate job and started his own company selling digital downloads of content that he created direct to consumers through his own website. When he quit, everyone thought he was nuts. He was in an industry where established brands and marketing power were drivers for sales and authors were an afterthought. Over the last 9+ years, he grew the business to the point where he continues to sell digital downloads but also publishes small print runs of physical books thanks to the advancements in digital printing. Is he as successful as JK Rowling? Nope. Is he supporting a wife and kids? Yes. He now makes enough money on his back catalog that he is now devoting his time to writing fiction only.
The book The Long Tail never said that the Field of Dreams strategy works now that the internet is here. That is a common misperception promoted and perpetuated by folks like yourself. It doesn't state that good marketing and business plans are no longer needed. It simply states that the landscape has changed making new business models possible that previously were not possible and tries to show some examples.
Unfortunately for the author, he had no idea that the number of songs for download would explode beyond the capacity for folks to critically evaluate each one of them (13 million songs, times 3.5 minutes each is 45 million minutes or 86.5 years of 24/7 music listening). He had no idea that pirate downloading would become the norm and that the business would be as affected by it as it has been. If there were one on-line music store with zero pirating, it would be interesting to see what that model looks like- but we never will.
The book is not a guarantee of success for everyone doing at-home publishing, the same way buying Pro Tools does not guarantee someone becomes a good engineer and creates a hit record. The book is the launch pad for a new way of thinking about the sale of "things". People used to think that you could only make money if you sold widgets at Wal Mart (or Barnes and Noble or Guitar Center). Now there are businesses making money going to no store at all and there are businesses making money selling "items" that are 1's and 0's.
joe
Post by: RMoore on January 05, 2011, 10:20:40 PM
Its easy for people like Anderton to be cheery about the demise of the old guard when their wages are paid by a good day job unthreatened by change IMO.
People who are thrilled by revolution & overturning the existing order, usually fail to consider lessons from history where the resulting new order turns out to be not all that great. French Revolution,Zimbabwe,Russia to name but a few. Maybe the 'new music business' too.
Fwiw - I did read the Long Tail at the time & bought copies for friends to spread a message of potential hope, unfortunately it looks like the Long Tail has been discredited, at least as it pertains to music.
Post by: Les Ismore on January 05, 2011, 11:17:30 PM
Post by: kats on January 05, 2011, 11:26:58 PM
I touched on it here about 4 years ago:
http://recforums.prosoundweb.com/index.php/m/266462/11313/?s rch=long+tail+theory#msg_266462
Post by: feedback loop on January 06, 2011, 12:18:06 AM
| joeyhavoc wrote on Wed, 05 January 2011 18:37 |
There are businesses right now making money by focusing not on generating the big hit but by finding a niche within the tail and hammering it home. |
Company names?
Post by: el duderino on January 06, 2011, 12:30:43 AM
| Les Ismore wrote on Wed, 05 January 2011 23:17 |
There is a movie that's been out for a while called "Idiocracy". Check it out if you haven't seen it. It is the new paradigm imo. |
we need music with electrolytes.
Post by: RMoore on January 06, 2011, 01:27:36 AM
| Les Ismore wrote on Thu, 06 January 2011 05:17 |
There is a movie that's been out for a while called "Idiocracy". Check it out if you haven't seen it. It is the new paradigm imo. |
Looks like a must-see:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0yQunhOaU0
Post by: maxim on January 06, 2011, 03:55:02 AM
while it's true that the immediate effects were disastrous in all those cases, the "long tail" effects of those revolutions means that you and i can now live in a more socially equitable state
my family had to escape the results of the russian revolution, and yet i still feel that the long term effects of a communist experiment will make my grandchildren's lives that little be better
libert
Post by: FFoster on January 06, 2011, 07:57:17 AM
| RMoore wrote on Wed, 05 January 2011 22:20 |
The way things are is the new paradigm. People who are thrilled by revolution & overturning the existing order, usually fail to consider lessons from history where the resulting new order turns out to be not all that great. French Revolution,Zimbabwe,Russia to name but a few. Maybe the 'new music business' too. |
Good Lord. The French Revolution? I hardly think a change of career can be likened to the guillotine.
I managed to eek out a living when COBOL died.
Post by: Gio on January 06, 2011, 08:45:07 AM
| maxim wrote on Thu, 06 January 2011 03:55 | ||||||||||||||
ryan wrote: "lessons from history where the resulting new order turns out to be not all that great. French Revolution,Zimbabwe,Russia to name but a few." while it's true that the immediate effects were disastrous in all those cases, the "long tail" effects of those revolutions means that you and i can now live in a more socially equitable state my family had to escape the results of the russian revolution, and yet i still feel that the long term effects of a communist experiment will make my grandchildren's lives that little be better libert Post by: Bill Mueller on January 06, 2011, 12:10:17 PM
Fred, He did give the name Monte Cook. And while Monte seems to be a prolific writer and gets a lot of press, he is exactly like a band that starts out with a label deal, builds a following and then goes it alone, claiming that their career is built upon file sharing. BS. Monte is benefiting from a long career working for good wages in the game industry, building a following and then capitalizing on it on his own. This is NOT the Long Tail. But Apple started in a garage, as did Hewlett Packard and many other HUGE companies. So just because the long tail is a false tail does not mean that entrepreneurs cannot start out small. That is everyone's hope. It is the idea that there is some Utopian space where niche content providers have instant access to millions of people that is just wrong. Take a look at the Tour numbers thread. If you add the 8 MILLION (!) bands on Myspace (most of whom pay to play or play for free) the long tail is clearly a fraud. The millions of books "published" by vanity presses are the same thing, only worse. It does not take the kind of training to type as it does to learn an instrument, so anyone can be an "author". Joey, you keep taking this thread personally. Don't. It has nothing to do with you. It has to do with a propaganda (advertising) ploy that was supposed to change the world in 2005 and failed. Nothing more. Best regards, Bill Post by: joeyhavoc on January 06, 2011, 08:00:20 PM
Bill, The fact is that there IS a space where niche content providers have access to millions of people without the log jam or filter of big box stores. What is wrong is the belief that if you build it and throw it on the internet you are guaranteed that someone will find it. Nowhere in The Long Tail does the author state that. And nowhere does he state that Marketing 101 concepts(awareness, consideration, trial, and purchase) are no longer required for a successful product. But people "think" that's what the book says... And you're right it's not personal. It's about stating facts. The definition of “propaganda” is “the spreading of ideas, information, or rumor for the purpose of helping or injuring an institution, a cause, or a person”. The definition of a “ploy” is a “tactic intended to embarrass or frustrate an opponent”. Your statement above is that Chris Anderson wrote a book with the intention of providing misinformation to trick and harm people. From my perspective, that seems completely non-factual to me. It's statements like these that have spurred me to debate this topic so vigorously. As I've stated previously, for the last 10 years I've been working on businesses in a variety of categories where the goal was to build products for small populations of niche market consumers outside of the big box stores using the internet for sales and advertising and sometimes digital objects as inventory. While Anderson's prediction of how the music industry would play out was wildly wrong, I use concepts from his book on a weekly basis with success. And so does Monte Cook... And Tarol Hunt of the online comic, Goblins... And the founders of Pop Cap Games... YMMV. Good luck Bill! joe Post by: Nick Sevilla on January 09, 2011, 09:18:11 AM
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