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[MB]

Current German CPI: 108 (with the year 2000 as the base 100)

http://www.destatis.de/indicators/e/pre110ae.htm

That an 8% increase in consumer prices since the year 2000. Keep in mind the Euro was introduced in 2002.

If the introduction of the Euro caused an increase in inflation of 50%, the German economy would have collapsed, financial markets would have been in absolute panic and there would have been a worldwide depression. You probably would have heard about it.

[t(h)ik]

I don't know maybe inflation is not the right word.

A dinner for two that used to be sixty marks was instantly 40 Euros...

My rent did not go up but a lot of shit did.

Dude, I was here and saw it.

The perception of the econonmy and the reality are obviously two different things.  And I will pull my head out of my ass and do some research.  

German economy collapsing...hmmm, worldwide depression...hmmm..

Current prices vs. what they used to be...hmmm...I don't have a problem taking the veil off but I think there are an awful lot of things that went up about 50%....let's find out....

Lemme nough

Tik

[MB]

What you need to look at are weighted averages of the things you spend your income on.

If the price of kabobs doubled but you only spend 1% of you income on kabobs then it will have a negligible effect on your disposable income.

Think rationally here: if the day after the Euro was introduced everybody doubled prices, all that would happen is nobody would buy anything. Supply and demand. But if I'm a clever retailer I only raise prices 40% so everybody flocks to me. But then other retailers go down to 30%, and so on until the supernormal profits are eliminated, and we are back to the normal prices. This is called market equilibrium in economics - in the long run, prices reflect the cost of inputs plus a normal return on investment (ignoring market inefficiencies such as monopolies). If I'm achieving better than market returns then others will see the opportunity and enter that market, thinning the margins until the opportunity is mitigated.

[t(h)ik]

Dude,

I am not taking issue with anything you are saying.  And let me further say thank you for the conversation because this forum is really the only mentorship I have....now...are you ready?

When you say something like I did "50% inflation in one day" and then someone quotes the consumer price index...if you are rational as you encourage me to be...you think...HOLY SHIT! My mouth was a day and a half ahead of my brain!...And don't think the shit all you guys type in here just goes bouncin' off my noggin...

BUT!

This morning I talked to my Doctor friend who ran his own practice.  The Gasthaus owner and his son...very smart...I talked to a funiture salesman and two housewives one of whom is also a Doctor...the other runs a business...so not soap opera watching trophy wives...

An E series Mercedes that was around 63,000 DM with the same shit on it is now around 55,000 Euro

The cost of a midsized house and believe me they know what midsized is to the fukken square meter went from 800,000 DM in my county to around 500,000 Euros..

Strawberrys (we had a good season this year) 1,99 Euros..used to be 2,10 DM

The furniture salesman said he does not think it was more than 6% with most of his suppliers.

He did agree with both housewives, groceries are about 30-40% more...the very next day!

yogurt for example went from 99 pfenning to 99 cents

The explanation I got for the pricing index varied from, "consumer electronics are cheaper and everyone of them is a line item down to the USB cables" to "their all crooked lying bastards" that would be the doctor  

Dude, don't think I don't understand and what's more I would rather be arguing about other shit cause I have absolutely no stake in this other than I think it's great you are trying to dispell a myth, if it is a myth AND I have no idea what I am talking about anyway....

My hunting license went from 180DM for three years to 190 Euros...

The rest of the shit...I have no idea personally except for restaurants because I had a great job and told them to fukk off and opened a studio.....and now I look at the price of milk....if I could afford it everyday....But restaurants went on a runaway gravy train and have not returned to "normal"

Lemme nough

and thanx again it's a pleasure to talk to people on the ball...

Tik

[maxdimario]

It's a major scam. They claim something low like 10% or less but that's crap for most of us.

Southern Italy is better off, as they have always been cheaper for cost of living, food etc.

a coffee used to be around 800-1000 lire = .40-.50 euro. it is now .80-1 euro.

a pizza (which only costs about an euro to make) was 8000 to 10000 lire or 4 or 5 euro it is now 7-9.50 euro where I live.
The bar downstairs charges 2.60 euro for a coke (used to be 3000 lire, or half what it is now)

everything has doubled in price. they have taken a zero off the old prices.

the average restaurant (I never eat at home) used to be 20-25k lire (10-13 euro) it is now 20-25 euro for a two course meal.

A beer used to be around 5000 lire or 2.50 it now costs about 4 euro, or double that.

a pair of good quality leather shoes used to be around 250000 now 250 euro and up (double).

pants,shirts,food.

People don't buy all the extra stuff they used to at the supermarket.

rents have increased accordingly. I am renting with a price set on my contract before the euro, and luckily I pay about 35% less than I would have to now if I were to re-do the contract.


What has really happened is that people who had money IN THE BANK lost half the  value of their SAVINGS, and salaries have remained the same.

slowly but surely the bank saving accounts are being drained and people need to start borrowing money.

THE STOCK MARKET or investment accounts here in Italy have no more credibility since the banks themselves pushed investments which they had interests in and caused huge losses in savings accounts for everyone who believed the hype.

there are similar stories from my friends who are businessmen and have families in france etc.

the only things that have kept their values have been real estate and other investments tied to real 'physical' value, not subject to too many numbers games. I guess.

It's funny how even the people who live in europe haven't realized what a major scam this has effectively become for the average person.

There are people who are better off now, but those are the people who own land or who have made money off of the change in money value.


.....AND  people have stopped going out as much as they used to.

I remember Rome was always busy until 4 or 5 o'clock in the morning, Last time I went all the all-night resturants I knew of had shut down. People go home at 2 o'clock and there's a lot more foreigners at the bars downtown compared to people who live there.

[stevieeastend]

Hey guys,

you are 100% right. Same in Austria, of course. Actually almost everything doubled and wages decreased due to the free disposal of cheap manpower from the east. If people do not agree to work more for the same or work for less they are replaced by people from the east. Companies get under pressure from eastern companies offering the same work for half of the price... go figure what happens next....
I cannot remember a time seeing so many fucked up people in Vienna. Unemployement in Vienna increased to about 14 %.... You can watch everything gettin worse month by month...
cheers
steveeastend

[maxdimario]

It's funny how things we take for granted, like democracy, protection from monopolies and anything to do with economy or government are not working.

A friend was saying that steel import here in Italy is way down (he buys and sells steel).

From a purely logical point of view (without any statistics or information to provide proof) it would make sense to assume that since the Euro cut down the value of money to 50% all over Europe, that there is a consistency behind it all.

Who would earn more money from the fact that the cash that was fixed in savings accounts is now in circulation (because people have to spend it)?

Is there any advantage for a chosen few? Who would these people be?

Any amateur economists out there who might have a clue?

..and would the current exchange rates between the euro and other eastern currencies facilitate or hinder those who work with imports?

[t(h)ik]

Max,

Noone can explain it.

Your friend buys steel and they make italian furniture out of it.  This is sold in Berlin to a Canadian that exports German cars to Russia for his office in St. Peterburg.  He flies to Austria while they are picking up some Steyer-Mannilicher sniper rifles to sell to a middle eastern coutry and buy some Italian shotguns made from the same steel for thirty-five thousand Euros each. But the purchase is VAT free.  The Canadian owns Chinese internet stock that just took a plunge after the company's profits exceeded expectations...They all pay double the price for an Italian espresso and their plane crashes on the Swiss border....where do they bury the survivors?

[Yannick Willox]

Just a few (anecdotal and not) remarks:

-In Flanders-Belgium, real estate prices have gone up 10% each year, over the last 4 years and will continue to do so.
-Steel price is way up
-Oil prices have never been as high

but:
-In Flanders, money in savings accounts (private and corporate) have NEVER been higher !
-the euro probably caused a 3-5% inflation, but do you honestly think all those rising prices are caused by the money we use ???

So it is not caused by bad policy, steel shortage, ultrahigh petrol prices, loss of production to Asia, population getting older&older ???

Blame it on the euro - that is simple and practical.
Probably the only way to keep optimistic  

[MB]

Once again, for all those offering steal caged anecdotes:

Have you bothered to look at the inflation figures for your country after the Euro was introduced? Are you saying they are a fabrication and Europe is actually in the throws of runaway double-digit inflation?

You guys are supposed to be engineers. Most engineers I know actually look at hard data when drawing conclusion about the state of the system they are evaluating.

[t(h)ik]

MB wrote on Mon, 04 July 2005 11:49

Once again, for all those offering steal caged anecdotes: Have you bothered to look at the inflation figures for your country after the Euro was introduced? Are you saying they are a fabrication and Europe is actually in the throws of runaway double-digit inflation? You guys are supposed to be engineers. Most engineers I know actually look at hard data when drawing conclusion about the state of the system they are evaluating.

I am not a EE..just managed two years..and most of anything I have is based on experience and not statistics..

I am not telling you, just giving my opinion.

Yes, I think it is runaway inflation.

If you base it on the CPI..

Take all electric tools, car parts, consumer electronics, computers and the myriad of things you buy occasionaly that are manufactured in non-Euro countries.  These things cost less because the Euro is high.  They balance the CPI.  Not many Germans I know buy a T.V. every year.

Then take into account things you need everyday like dairy products, fruit.  Eating out if you are not part of the Cleaver family. Services of any kind have gone up, that is a cold hard fact.  Taxes, which here in Germany did not get raised at the same rate of currency change.  Health insurance which is becoming pay more get less.  

Yeah I will go for the anecdote sorry...

People are spending less because they don't know what's coming.

I asked my banker.  He says it is getting really tight.

I know, anecdotal...

Lemme nough

[maxdimario]

MB wrote on Mon, 04 July 2005 11:49

Once again, for all those offering steal caged anecdotes: Have you bothered to look at the inflation figures for your country after the Euro was introduced? Are you saying they are a fabrication and Europe is actually in the throws of runaway double-digit inflation? You guys are supposed to be engineers. Most engineers I know actually look at hard data when drawing conclusion about the state of the system they are evaluating.

'Most engineers' hide behind data.
A lot of 'data' is just playing with numbers.

If hiding behind public opinion and somebody else's 'data' is what makes the opinion of 'most engineers' then maybe those engineers are not so much engineers as they are cheap, train-able employment, who like to be right, without the need to experience reality.  We have just told you that prices have doubled with some real-world examples and intead of asking yourself why, you simply shrug it off as being impossible because you didn't hear about it through the media? Think about it.

Nothing good musically has ever come about without some original creative thought. Personal experience.

'musical' crap is the result of blindly following 'public opinion'

How many times do you have to see or hear something before you believe it?  Or maybe it's more convenient to believe that things are OK as we know them and they will never change?  Depends what you believe, I guess, and how convenient it is for you to believe in 'public opinion'.  What about if trouble knocked on your door?

Look at corporate record companies and the way they are run. Look at the relationship they have with investors and the media. See just how far corporate-funded public opinion can be removed from reality.

maybe it all has something to to with paying debts.

Come over and see for yourself, bring in some tourist money

[t(h)ik]

maxdimario wrote on Tue, 05 July 2005 11:52

How many times do you have to see or hear something before you believe it?  Or maybe it's more convenient to believe that things are OK as we know them and they will never change?   Come over and see for yourself, bring in some tourist money

Um, Max, my brother....

I think things are OK except we are paying to much for strawberrys

Inflation is not the right word.

Graft is probably closer.  It is so rampant here....

But you are right.  It just sucks for you that the statistics imply you are fukked up and just talking shit.

Now you know how Galileo felt...

Lemme nough

Tik

[t(h)ik]

You know also Max, when this thread started I wasn't very interested but it really is thought provoking.

Thanx...

Keep in mind I am not that bright and the origin of my own boogers are a magical mystery.

Are the statistics by a housewife who manages the household budget less valid than someone who works in Frankfurt and surfs Formula One sites when his boss is not there?

Are statistics purely for and of their own existence and to be forever at odds with the subjective?

I remember watching the presidential debates (not the ones from Latvia) between Reagan and Carter.  You had the incumbent who spent his four years following his instinct and subjective belief system and the challenger who was not short of his own opinions.  I don't recall a huge amount of statistics being thrown about.  Maybe I'm wrong. But you see so many statistics employed at today's presidential babblefests.  The point being (if I have one) is that the debate was more substantive than today's statistical trivial banter by much much lesser men.

The Environment.  The U.S. causes 25% of the world's pollution.  A very interesting statistic indeed.  But if you add up the European nations (if you include Russia) They have the same amount of Carbon Dioxide emissions according to the statistics. You see, if your country has low statistics you are morally superior even if most of your enviromentally unfriendly products are manufactured in a country that sucks.  But that's anecdotal.

Don't know if this is accurate just interesting because I listen to NPR and they are always comparing my nation's pollution numbers to Denmark.

Regardless of the statistics countries like Denmark have their shit together when it comes to Carbon emission.  However, half of them have a penchant for pulling campers through Germany (buying gas and driving up Germany's numbers) to get near the Alps and bad mouth Americans SUV's.  I know, anecdotal...

Anyway, nice thread...

Lemme nough