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[JamSync]

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/13.04/start.html?pg=2

[Level]

I saw that one.

A point is made. no moving part formats are the future.

KK, did the Blu-ray thing get hammered out? Still in transistion from latest news here as of April 4.

It will not be a digital versitle disc as we all hoped. Each is viaing for a place for it...them the 50 gig chips will roll out making it all moot IMHO.

[guitarbth]

Interesting article..... I think physical media will some day be out of existance (some day), maybe not quite yet but it's definately on the downslope. However, Sony's Blu-ray and HD DVDs are going head to head as we speak. Sony's new Playstaion 3, which is in development, will feature the Blu Ray discs as their format while Microsoft's Next Box or XBOX2 is probably going to feature HD DVD discs. With the huge market of video gamers out there, the success or failure of one of these formats could lead to a possilbe new music media.... Who knows...it could happen .... But the iPod looks to be gaining ground quickly...


Brandon

[David Schober]

Capps couldn't be more right.  This is what my guts have been telling me for some time. (albeit Capps has done a more thought out and articulated version than I ever had)  The market has clearly spoken about their desire for convenience of over quality.  But that's nothting new.  Even in the days of vinyl, hi-fi was a niche market.  Of course back then if you wanted great sound, the medium was there.  All one needed was great gear.  But still, most people had little cheap bad sounding turntables for their records.  But I'm getting off track.

Blu-Ray and the others are a DOA format.  I predict like Capps said, by the time the dust settles, online access will be at the door.  It just makes sense.  

My bet is consumers will be happy to ante up for higher bandwidth internet cost so they can download movies.  Just as iTunes was a "Duh!  This is the way to do it!" kind of idea, when people, including me, are able get rent movies the same way iTunes works that will be my last day at a video store.  People will pay a some sort of a premium, probably like the cost of extra channels for HBO for being able to download.  (I'm sure HBO is thinking about that right now.  Why have movies broadcast when you can download any movie, any time?)  

This might be the best hope for higher quality audio.  When the the faster cable/internet whatever-it-will-be technology comes about, higher quality audio can hop on for the ride.  Well...wishful thinking anyway.

A great article.  Necessary reading IMHO.

[JamSync]

Level wrote on Wed, 06 April 2005 23:14

I saw that one. A point is made. no moving part formats are the future. KK, did the Blu-ray thing get hammered out? Still in transistion from latest news here as of April 4. It will not be a digital versitle disc as we all hoped. Each is viaing for a place for it...them the 50 gig chips will roll out making it all moot IMHO.

You mean HD-DVD? That's problematic because apparently to make an HD-DVD dual layer burner would cost $10,000 a pop. Blu-Ray is much easier (and cheaper), so HD-DVD will be limited to around 25 gigs, with Blu-Ray at 50.

Specs are still in development, but addition of Dolby Lossless to Blu-Ray, not to mention Apple's support really swung the pointer to Blu-Ray, I think.

The really scary thing is how fast streaming will be upon us and also how many cell-phone manufacturers think everyone is going to be buying tunes (ring tunes...as distinct from ring tones) for their cell phones. They're talking about "ring tone composers" also, which is my idea of where composers go to die...

[David Kulka]

I don't really buy it, not any time soon at least.  I wouldn't want to clog up a computer hard drive with a library of purchased DVD's and I'd be very, very unhappy if it crashed and they were all lost.

A TIVO-like device for purchased entertainment might be more like it but still, that's an awful lot of disk space (especially for hi def), and it's not very portable, and it still might freeze one day.

Ipod's are great but they're not a central music library for the home, more like a fun, on the go accessory.  I think disks -- or some kind of boxed, duplicated media -- are going to be around for a while.

[JamSync]

David Kulka wrote on Thu, 07 April 2005 02:07

I don't really but it, not any time soon at least.  I would want to clog up a computer hard drive with a library of purchased DVD's and I'd be very, very unhappy if it crashed and they were all lost. A TIVO-like device for purchased entertainment might be more like it but still, that's an awful lot of disk space (especially for hi def), and it's not very portable, and it still might freeze one day. Ipod's are great but they're not a central music library for the home, more like a fun, on the go accessory.  I think disks -- or some kind of boxed, duplicated media -- are going to be around for a while.

Ah, but here's the concept...subscription services. Subscription services think that people will prefer accessibility to ownership. For instance with a subscription audio service, you can access, say, 40 new tunes for $10 a month and cram them on to your portable device that can hold thousands of tunes. Sounds great, right? Well, it's cool until you stop paying the subscription. Then ALL of them stop playing. Digital Rights management will make it so you can't record 'em either (don't throw away your analog equipment!).

OTOH, they state that if you filled your iPod with 10,000 songs, you'd spend $9,999. You could have a very long subscription for that. Again, the key word is accessibility, not personal storage, so there's no "loss" if your hard drive goes down. There's a record of your purchases, and you just take a few minutes to suck the stuff into a new device.

Same thing with movies. Actually, Comcast sort of has the Tivo thing covered on their servers already, although I haven't had time to test it out.

[Level]

.

Quote:

OTOH, they state that if you filled your iPod with 10,000 songs, you'd spend $9,999. You could have a very long subscription for that. Again, the key word is accessibility, not personal storage, so there's no "loss" if your hard drive goes down. There's a record of your purchases, and you just take a few minutes to suck the stuff into a new device.

KK, if you can hear it, see it, you can record it faithfully. Analog to digital outboards.. All day long
Who is kidding who here??

Hard media, no moving parts is the only way. We have the tools to take aural and visual to any state or form we want to..including Beta SP.

[JamSync]

Level wrote on Thu, 07 April 2005 03:10

. Quote: OTOH, they state that if you filled your iPod with 10,000 songs, you'd spend $9,999. You could have a very long subscription for that. Again, the key word is accessibility, not personal storage, so there's no "loss" if your hard drive goes down. There's a record of your purchases, and you just take a few minutes to suck the stuff into a new device. KK, if you can hear it, see it, you can record it faithfully. Analog to digital outboards.. All day long Who is kidding who here?? Hard media, no moving pars is the only way. We have the tools to take aural and visual to any state or form we want to..including Beta SP.

Well, they're depending on a non-technical customer who wants it NOW.  The only problem with BetaSP, other than the fact that it's kind of crappy is that the decks won't be made in the future and the ones around now will eventually wear out. It's like our old U-Matic that threatens not to go into reverse now and again. Some day it's not going to go into reverse and then it's going to the garbage...

[David Schober]

JamSync wrote on Wed, 06 April 2005 20:17

Ah, but here's the concept...subscription services. Subscription services think that people will prefer accessibility to ownership. For instance with a subscription audio service, you can access, say, 40 new tunes for $10 a month and cram them on to your portable device that can hold thousands of tunes. Sounds great, right? Well, it's cool until you stop paying the subscription. Then ALL of them stop playing. Digital Rights management will make it so you can't record 'em either (don't throw away your analog equipment!).

Right KK...

And this is a perfect replacement for the old video rental store.  You're thinking of videos like music.  The public, and this no doubt includes every one of us, has gotten used to the idea of renting a video.  The subscription service idea is better because A. You don't have to get out of your jammies and go to the store...only to find the movie you wanted is out.  B.  Much, much better choices.  You could rent almost any hard to find film..unlike Blockbuster.  

Video rentals can't be easily copied by normal consumers anyway.  And besides, at the prices you can rent one, it's hardly worth the trouble.  

My bet is a little hard disk recorder (basic unit free with subscription) that holds your videos.  The rented movie will last for a week or whatever then it loses it's directory so space is available for more rentals.  You can pay an extra $10 or so for a larger hard drive.  

Movies you want to purchase will go to a similar machine...but one that' s yours to keep.  We'll get one at Best Buy and it will replace the DVD player.  Don't ask me about what people what people will do when run out of hard drive space because they want to own 1000 movies.  A pile of more hard drives sitting in yet another closet in my house makes me shudder...

Of course since there won't be a need for physical things like a DVD....no more manufacturing and shipping costs, just downloading bits from a server.... the movie companies will no doubt pass that savings along to us.  Right??????????  (cough cough...gag gag)

[Level]

brand new ones are sold as we speak...and back ordered.
Linear is hear to stay.

SubLinear will be the future, no moving parts.

I will bet on it.

2018 we will have 1 terrabyte chips...adressable.
Normans law.

I am an older man. I hope to see 2020 myself..may not.

[punkest]

To all this I would add that the future will be an all purpose downloading/(sometimes temporal sometimes not) storing device that for a subscription that varies depending on the kind/amount of content you download gives you access to any kind of data available, be it schematics, books, music, films, applications, sounds or whatever suits you. Physical moving parts in it? maybe, maybe not... just the concept is the amazing part right now... I read that maybe hard disks are about to leave the building for something that reminds perforated cards, just in the nano world, or maybe biomemory? something like DNA cytosine-guanine-thymine-adenine molecules holding the multitrack of your new song...

I & I Iration

Hans Mues

[Paul.E]

From what I read and hear about, I believe media broadcasting will change very quickly in the coming years. It will be 100% tailored to each individual's needs. The term "on demand" comes to mind, only it will be implemented more thoroughly. Not bad for people like myself who want what they want, when they want it! What I am curious to see is how the clients/consumers will pay for these on demand services.

Only time can tell!

[Level]

Paul E states:

Quote:

Only time can tell!

Exactly dead on.

[Johnny B]

KK,

Thanks for the great read.

Much of it fits with what little I know about Apple and MS.
For example, Apple's Steve Jobs and Oracle's Larry Ellison have been fairly tight in the past. Ellison always liked the Client-Server model, with the idea that the big mainframes and everything in between would be running his software to manage the big network beast, but the little clients would not have so much control. Do you all remember that Ellison wanted to bring out that under 100-dollar set top box thingy? Not too much horsepower in the users' hands. And it sorta flopped.  

Gates OTOH, was more of a distributed processing guy, with every box being able to do its own thing. Gates admitted that the internet taking off caught him by surprise.  

But Jobs,  now Jobs seems to straddle both these very different worlds with ease. He's got the iTunes thing which fits more with the Ellison "big server in the sky" model, and he's got his own server products and whatnot, but he's also got all this distributed processing stuff going on as well. Apple is in a great position to do something great. Whether they do it or not, who knows?  

I suspect that people will still want some of both, they'll want that big server in the sky and the on-demand stuff, but they will also still want to own stuff, they will still want to manipulate stuff in their own creative way. We see that now, right?

Bill's right, no moving parts would be better for storage.

My biggest fear is that sound quality will take a back seat to the video side in all the data compression schemes. OTOH, great pictures without great sound just sucks.  I'm hopeful, but I dunno. I just dunno.

KK, that article was certainly thought-provoking, thanks again for posting it and sharing it with us.