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[Viitalahde]

Behold everyone, I have a vision..

Bubblegum MTV pop music becomes more and more single-based and is greatly consumed in downloadable form. The loudness race continues here because no-one wants their tune to lose in the iPod or whatever, and because people are listening with headphones.

The album concept backs off as only the more serious pop artists do an album. Out of the mainstreme, album still remains pretty strong as the musicians care of their art enough to make statues of sound instead of single objects in the kitchen. Increasingly, sound quality is mattering more and more though things are still pretty loud.

A drop of truth and a drop of wishes here..?

[bblackwood]

I think you could be spot on for major labels, but I think there will always be a market for records. My business has shifted over the last few years from doing a single/EP per week or so to doing one every day at least, with some days seeing 2 EPs and a single.

Of course, if people would cut records with more than one or two decent tracks, we wouldn't be having this discussion...

[barefoot]

I don't worry too much about all this.  Price and convenience always tend to win over quality, but quality will always eventually catch up.  Inevitable advances in storage and bandwidth will make CD quality files as cheap and portable as mp3s.   When that happens, people will surely migrate to the higher quality format.  Then some new cycle will ensue, and so on.  

As far a loudness, it's my understanding that people almost always prefer more dynamic material over heavily compressed, as long as the perceived loudnesses are matched.   And I predict that those obnoxiously compressed TV and radio commercials are actually going to be music's saving grace.   I haven't  purchased a TV or radio in a long time, so I'm not sure if automatic loudness controllers are widely available yet -  but they certainly will be.  And people are going to demand them.  They'll also make their way into stereo systems.   Then the loudness race will be over.  And the incentive to hyper compress will go the way of the dinosaurs.  In fact, since systems will automatically adjust for loudness, and dynamic music sounds better, dynamics will be back in vogue.   Who knows, producers might even go overboard in this direction.  We'll wind up with records having horribly high noise floors because everyone will try to create massively dynamic tracks to catch people's attention!

Albums versus single tracks?  I sort of hope more people follow the lead of many small electronica labels.   They tend to have loose affiliations with a large numbers of artists.   They might put out few full CDs of their "stars", but mainly they release compilation disks.   Only the best of the best tracks go on these disks.    Often time they are by artist whom you have never heard of - and may never hear again.  But they're all gems.  It's very democratic and it really "shares the wealth".    Ask any electronica fan and they'll probably tell you that some of their most cherished records are complications - filled with artists who may never have released a full CD of their own.  I say we need to pay less attention and money to  the "next big thing" and more to the legions of "underground"  musicians out there.  

Thomas

[invisibl]

Quote:

" Albums versus single tracks? I sort of hope more people follow the lead of many small electronica labels. They tend to have loose affiliations with a large numbers of artists. They might put out few full CDs of their "stars", but mainly they release compilation disks. Only the best of the best tracks go on these disks. Often time they are by artist whom you have never heard of - and may never hear again. But they're all gems. It's very democratic and it really "shares the wealth". Ask any electronica fan and they'll probably tell you that some of their most cherished records are complications - filled with artists who may never have released a full CD of their own. I say we need to pay less attention and money to the "next big thing" and more to the legions of "underground" musicians out there."

Like a mining of 12" pressings .
Big up the remix and much love to the underground captains.

I agree with the gem quality also, I was noticing that many people persist in refering to releases as "records" Myself included...

Wishful thinkin??

[Viitalahde]

Yeah, I like electronic stuff.. mostly from the 90's though. And I've always loved well-done compilations.

The iPod whatever thing just makes me wonder how business reacts to the fact that they'll never know what is the next song after their song. Somehow I feel the only solution they see is to make everything even, hitting the ceiling.

I sure do hope automatic loudness controls will cut through.

[natpub]

"...everything that's out is in..."

---David Bowie

[Gold]

The largest benefit to being vinyl centric is that most everyone is passionate about the music. It's mainly small labels that are in it for the music. I have liked almost everything we have pressed at Brooklynphono. I certainly can't say that about the CD's I've mastered. I'm not really a top 40 type of guy. Never was. I have noticed  in the last five years that almost everything I want to listen to is released on vinyl. There is a lot to be said for the A side/ B side concept. I listened to Ray Charles C&W volume 2 this morning. Big Band on one side strings on the other. Just beautiful.

[Consul]

I'm just a wannabe musician, rather than any kind of recording or mastering engineer, but I wanted to continue Gold's point about A-Side/B-Side...

One of the things I've noticed since I was about ten (I'm 28 now, for reference) is that track order on a disc is not random, but planned out. It seems that out of a collection of songs, that at least one will serve well as a great opener for the whole album, and at least one will serve as a strong closer.

In between, though, on vinyl you don't really have a whole album, but rather, two half-albums, which means two openers and two closers. CDs took this feature away.

Truth to tell, I really don't miss vinyl as much as some others. I do like being able to put a CD in and not have to flip a record over. However, a vinyl records A-Side/B-Side format did have at least one advantage from an artistic point of view: you could treat it as two half-albums if you wanted to. Brian Eno did this with Before and After Science, where one side was rock, and the other was much softer and more ambient.

As for my opinion on modern ultra-compression techniques, I really hate the way they sound, and if people want it louder, use the freaking volume knob.

Yes, I know the reason for super-compression has to do with radio airplay, but I don't see why lables can't master two versions of an album if they're really that hard-up for perceived loudness on the radio. That way, they can spare those of us who buy and listen to albums.

[Bob Olhsson]

Price and convenience only win with mediocre quality entertainment. Stardom is about fans going way out of their way. This is basic.

In the past there have been musical artists who were every bit is big as Harry Potter. There just don't happen to be any now. That can change if we can create the fertile ground for those artists to develop in.

[Ed Littman]

Consul wrote on Fri, 30 July 2004 12:52

Truth to tell, I really don't miss vinyl as much as some others. I do like being able to put a CD in and not have to flip a record over. However, a vinyl records A-Side/B-Side format did have at least one advantage from an artistic point of view: you could treat it as two half-albums if you wanted to. Brian Eno did this with Before and After Science, where one side was rock, and the other was much softer and more ambient.

I don't miss vinyl at all. That's because I've been restoring & archiving  a bout six lp's a week for the last two years from the same clients collection.
A few points & benefits from lp's (IMO),are that since the whole album was on the average from 30 to 40 min. there was minimum filler, just the cream of the crop. Can that be said for todays industry? also the listener will hear more variety. when one side ends you probably will put on another disc. maybe a little rumba now?
Based on my clients collection of instrumental guitar, Latin,jazz,blues & lounge artists theres no doubt that large & small labels were willing to sign a more eclectic range of music that is basically lost to the public at large now adays.

Back in the day when players used the baritone guitar to double the bass or play a lonesome melody, you could hear the difference right away in their personality & gut.

Now adays just use  a drop "D" tuning & sound like Eddie jetter on vox & you certainly will have a better shot at the biz.
Ed

[guerillamixer]

Sorry for a small injection of crass commercialism here but..

What about future possible petrochemical shortages?

If cd/lps become more expensive to produce, digital transmission becomes more vital.

It would be interesting to know how high the price of oil per barrel would have to be before cd/lps become too expensive for various market sectors.


Andrei

[Bob Olhsson]

Considering how much shrink wrap we all dispose of daily, vinyl at its height was a mere drop in the bucket.

[TotalSonic]

dawkab wrote on Sun, 01 August 2004 12:33

Sorry for a small injection of crass commercialism here but.. What about future possible petrochemical shortages? If cd/lps become more expensive to produce, digital transmission becomes more vital. It would be interesting to know how high the price of oil per barrel would have to be before cd/lps become too expensive for various market sectors. Andrei

Andrei -
I am SO GLAD you brought this up!!!
When you say "possible" it might be much more accurate to say "IMPENDING" petroleum shortage
.  
While the following points might be better served by a couple of other excellent boards I lurk regularly on -
  http://pub38.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets &
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/ -
and if Brad feels this is too OT I'd be fine if he deletes my post - I feel just as no man is an island - no "industry" or endeavour is isolated from world events - and as such if we are interested in figuring out what the future of audio mastering is - we should also look at geo-political forces which will dictate future economies and lifestyles.  I feel this shouldn't be off topic because the people here are incredibly intelligent and educated and capable of understanding that this is a valid point of conversation even for this forum.

Essentially:
There are a tremendous amount of petroleum geologists (i.e. folks like Colin Campbell, Jean Laharrere, Kenneth Defeyes, etc. - who are all veterans of working for the majors like Shell & TotalFinaElf and each have spent 30+ years in study of production and supply) & energy experts (i.e. Matt Simmons - head of Simmons & CO. Intl. - head of the largest investment bank for energy developers) who have come to the conclusion based on all available data that the global peak of oil production will happen in approximately 5-20 years.  What this means is not that we've "run out" of oil - but that supply will no longer be able to keep up with demand - and that the amount of energy needed to be expended to produce the same amounts each successive year will increase (in roughly a bell shaped curve).  Natural Gas production in North America - which the North American electricity grid has become increasingly dependent on - is coincidentally also very close to a production peak in the same time period.

The implications of this for our society are staggering when you consider that 95% of all transportation is dependent on petroleum, that fertilizer, pesticides  and  nearly all mechanized equipment for agriculture, and the trucks that we distribute our food with are dependent on petroleum, and that 40% of our total energy consumption comes from petroleum.  What also is troubling is that all the alternatives have distinct inherent problems - i.e. coal (which the US has a very large reserve of) even in it's "clean" forms where generators have the latest scrubbers produces a huge number of carbon emissions that lead to pollution and global warming, nuclear has safety and waste disposal problems, solar is a very dilute source that simply can not provide more than a few percentage of our energy needs even if we devote a large percentage of our energy supplies towards developing it full scale, bio-methanol would require a huge & unrealistic amount of land devoted to canola (or similar crop) production, and hydrogen is not a source of energy at all but an energy carrier that requires more energy to make than it actually produces.

What is also disturbing is that the necessary steps to transition our society to using a much greater percentage of alternative sources is simply not being under taken now.  Essentially - single motorists driving 18mpg SUV's for hour commutes, the fact that it takes 1300 miles to get the average piece of food to plate, cities with no mass transportation facilities, etc. - are simply not things that can be sustained for a long time into the future.  

So as far as the future of our industry in particular:
*) polycarbonate (used to make CD's) has stayed cheap currently because there are simply too many plants that have capacity to make it that are under utilized.  As petroleum prices continue to increase it will be more difficult for some of these to subsidized.  Costs to make CD's will rise slightly and then much quicker after a certain point is reached.  CD production - while requiring lots of electricity is not as energy intensive as many manufacturing processes but will still be impacted by these rising costs and increased costs of shipping.
*) there are fewer and fewer makers of record grade vinyl (Keysor Century actually went into Chap 11 a couple of years ago).  There's a maker in France (forget the name) and Rimtec in New Jersey and a few others - but petroleum prices impacts this production directly.  Vinyl production is fairly expensive relative to CD production as it requires besides electricity a boiler to provide steam and produces on a single press roughly 1/10 units what a CD press can produce in the same amount of time - and with Toolex ceasing production of molds the only place to get the majority of parts for what are at youngest 20 year old presses is from RPA - who charge exorbiant prices as they essentially have a monolopy.  So vinyl production will without a question also get way more expensive in the future.
*) global distribution and transportation will get more and more expensive - so those cheap Chinese prosumer gadgets and audio gear will get pricier
*) our industry is essentially a luxury - like it or not - and in times of economic stress - people have less to spend on luxuries.  

So - yes - digital distribution - which involves lesser energy useage - no inventory creation - and no transporation costs - will become more and more economically preferable.

but that is just touching the tip of the iceberg.  While, in an optimistic projection, we may only see the start of these issues - our children - or at the very best, our grandchildren - will have to wrestle with much more difficult circumstances than we undergo now.

Anyway -
I urge all of you on this board to further explore the issues of the global oil production peak and the implications for our collective futures at:
http://www.oilcrisis.com
http://www.dieoff.org
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com
http://www.fromthewilderness.com
http://www.postcarbon.org/

Best regards,
Steve Berson

[bblackwood]

Ahh, there's any number of ways they could physically transmit media - it doesn't have to be plastic or any other oil-based product. Digital distribution will become a huge market, imo, but I think there will be physical product for some time to come...

[TotalSonic]

bblackwood wrote on Mon, 02 August 2004 14:52

Ahh, there's any number of ways they could physically transmit media - it doesn't have to be plastic or any other oil-based product. Digital distribution will become a huge market, imo, but I think there will be physical product for some time to come...

Well -  plastics can be made from coal (the Germans did this back in the 30's) - it's just much more energy intensive and more polluting to make it this way - & plastics made from bio-methanol are also feasible - but what other materials are you referring to??  I guess glass could be coated with reflective materials as a non-plastic optical disc substitute - again this would a pretty energy intensive process and would be fragile.    Metal discs are exceedingly expensive to make also (i.e. current cost to make a blank for a single sided copper metal 12" DMM reference disc is somewhere around $20-$40 depending on how you cost the labor).  

Anyway - plastics won't "disappear" - they'll just get more expensive - along with energy costs for manufacturers and consumers alike.  So - electronic consumer goods most likely for the first time in years would actually increase in cost.  Electricity grids will be easier to maintain than current transportation grids because viable alternatives like coal and nukes already exist for power generation - but within 30 years we'll have to renew national railway networks and reconcentrate into urban areas and devote more labor into agriculture as petroleum supplies get more depleted.  But still - currently very little preparations are being made (with the exception of attempting increased security of access to Middle-Eastern petroleum reserves through military presence - which is an operation that I believe is currently failing in its mission) to make the transition to a world where for the first time in human history energy availability doesn't grow along with population - so there could be severe economic strain that could make the Great Depression look like a picnic unless we develop and implement a coherent forward thinking energy policy immediately.

Anyway: this ain't science fiction theories being spouted by conspiracy nuts - these are things that very well respected scientists that have been pillars in their industry have concluded will happen in our kids lifetimes - and most likely even ours.

But - yes - looking more towards the short term: in the next 10 years I don't think you'll see a substantial diminishing of distribution physical product (beyond the current stagnation of sales the industry has already seen) - but I still do think that digital distribution will become more and more prominent - and that the idea of singles will make a comeback.  I think that the ME's job will require more and more IT skills - with a lot of our job dealing more with getting the best out of compression codecs, digital watermarking,  and trafficking digital files to ftp sites.  

Brad: Sorry if I'm getting so OT in a lot of this post - but if someone asks about the future - these are the things we need to look into to judge it!!

Best regards,
Steve Berson